Trading for the Masses

China Slips in Pew Poll

Rich Investors Shunned Hedge Funds in 2006 for property, I heard that!!

CDOs: what’s the big deal?

Best albums of 2007 so far . . .

Iphone Dissected

Look at these numbers and tell me how with inventories piling to new highs in all these “large” western towns and foreclosures also peaking how we can be near a bottom in housing. Something is going to have give. I am going out on a limb and saying prices will be slaughtered over the next few years, no ifs, ands, or buts. See this link for more info, but I have to post these because they are purk shock value.

Riverside County Inventory (Sales)

By ocrenter

Tracking Riverside County, California

Population 2006: 1.95 million
1/30/2006 Listing per population ratio 1:116
8/20/2006 Listing per population ratio 1:76

01/2006: 16,846 (4,695)___1/2005: (3,951)
02/2006: 18,767 (4,796)___2/2005: (4,084)
03/2006: 20,334 (6,986)___3/2005: (5,915)
04/2006: 21,388 (5,444)___4/2005: (5,71
05/2006: 22,952 (5,468)___5/2005: (5,985)
06/2006: 24,490 (5,927)___6/2005: (6,485)
07/2006: 25,359 (4,420)___7/2005: (5,762)
08/2006: 26,052 (4,879)___8/2005: (6,452)
09/2006: 26,597 (4,533)___09/2005: 12,793 (6,001)
10/2006: 26,594 (4,200)___10/2005: 14,043 (5,542)
11/2006: 26,135 (3,794)___11/2005: 14,857 (5,904)
12/2006: 24,062 (4,318)___12/2005: 14,772 (6,305)

Population 2007: 2 million
01/01/2007 Listing per population ratio 1:83
06/10/2007 Listing per population ratio 1:64

01/01: 23,493
01/31: 24,931 (3,089)___01/2006: 16,846 (4,695)
02/28: 26,157 (3,057)___02/2006: 18,767 (4,796)
03/31: 28,451 (3,680)___03/2006: 20,334 (6,986)
04/30: 30,277 (2,987)___04/2006: 21,388 (5,444)
05/31: 31,515 (3,307)___05/2006: 22,952 (6,054)
06/30: 31,962

-inventory numbers obtained from Ziprealty with sales figures in parenthesis
-Ziprealty resale inventory includes SFR/Condo/MFR/Land Parcels
-(sales figure) includes new and resale homes from DataQuickNews

* Keep New:
* Posted on: Mon, Apr 30 2007 4:30 PM
* Updated: Sat, Jun 30 2007 5:21 AM
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Orange County Inventory (Sales)

By ocrenter

Tracking Orange County, California

Population 2006: 3.07 million
1/02/2006 Listing per population ratio 1:422
7/30/2006 Listing per population ratio 1:176

01/2006: 8,430 (2,868)____01/2005: (2,903)
02/2006: 10,420 (2,928)___02/2005: (2,890)
03/2006: 11,762 (4,203)___03/2005: (5,033)
04/2006: 13,268 (3,563)___04/2005: (4,547)
05/2006: 15,048 (3,762)___05/2005: (4,54
06/2006: 16,692 (3,608)___06/2005: (4,89
07/2006: 17,458 (2,779)___07/2005: 6,656 (4,341)
08/2006: 17,758 (3,203)___08/2005: 7,209 (4,70
09/2006: 17,475 (2,664)___09/2005: 8,044 (4,072)
10/2006: 16,650 (2,715)___10/2005: 8,565 (3,614)
11/2006: 15,188 (2,475)___11/2005: 8,520 (3,503)
12/2006: 13,220 (2,719)___12/2005: 7,583 (3,826)

Population 2007: 3.10 million
01/01/2007 Listing per population ratio 1:244
06/10/2007 Listing per population ratio 1:166

01/01: 12,600
01/31: 13,302 (2,400)___01/2006: 8,430 (2,86
02/28: 13,704 (2,449)___02/2006: 10,420 (2,92
03/31: 15,324 (3,130)___03/2006: 11,762 (4,203)
04/30: 17,094 (2,682)___04/2006: 13,268 (3,563)
05/31: 18,353 (2,675)___05/2006: 15,048 (3,762)
06/30: 19,263

-ziprealty resale inventory includes SFR/Condo/MFR/Land Parcels
-(sale figure) includes new and resale homes from Data Quick News

* Keep New:
* Posted on: Mon, Apr 30 2007 2:15 PM
* Updated: Sat, Jun 30 2007 5:19 AM
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Metro Seattle Inventory (Sales)

By ocrenter

Tracking King & Snohomish Counties, Washington

Population 2006: 2.46 million
01/02/2006 Listing per population ratio 1:305
10/10/2006 Listing per population ratio 1:173

01/2006: 8,425 (2,468)___01/2005: (2,491)
02/2006: 8,527 (3,391)___02/2005: (3,244)
03/2006: 8,724 (4,772)___03/2005: (5,285)
04/2006: 9,284 (4,585)___04/2005: (5,259)
05/2006: 10,018 (5,027)__05/2005: (5,470)
06/2006: 11,415 (5,597)__06/2005: (5,797)
07/2006: 12,172 (5,063)__07/2005: (5,662)
08/2006: 12,933 (5,684)__08/2005: (5,933)
09/2006: 14,333 (4,661)__09/2005: (5,422)
10/2006: 14,395 (4,432)__10/2005: (5,012)
11/2006: 13,603 (3,925)__11/2005: (4,539)
12/2006: 11,851 (3,720)__12/2005: 8,609 (3,513)

Population 2007:
01/01/2007 Listing per population ratio 1:227
05/31/2007 Listing per population ratio 1:143

01/01: 10,827
01/31: 11,888 (3,062)___01/2006: 8,425 (2,46
02/28: 12,230 (3,022)___02/2006: 8,527 (3,391)
03/31: 13,210 (4,444)___03/2006: 8,724 (4,772)
04/30: 14,608 (4,451)___04/2006: 9,284 (4,585)
05/31: 16,295 (4,892)___05/2006: 10,018 (5,027)
06/30: 18,546

-inventory of SFR/Condo/MFR/Land Parcels from ziprealty
-(sale figure) includes SFR/Condo resales from Northwest Real Estate

* Keep New:
* Posted on: Mon, Apr 30 2007 1:30 PM
* Updated: Sat, Jun 30 2007 5:28 AM
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Tracking Foreclosures and Pre-Foreclosures

By ocrenter

Using foreclosure.com as the source, foreclosure figures are listed first, pre-foreclosures are listed next, with the % of pre-foreclosures moving forward to foreclosures in parentheses. These are cumulative numbers. Special thanks to reader moqui for Aug ‘05 and June ‘06 data.

San Diego County
08/25/05: 83/3,087 (2.7%)
06/15/06: 354/4,382 (8.1%)
10/31/06: 998/4,983 (20.0%)
11/30/06: 1,304/5,245 (24.9%)
12/30/06: 1,251/4,637 (27.0%)
01/30/07: 1,475/4,760 (31.0%)
02/27/07: 1,879/5,008 (37.5%)
03/30/07: 2,845/5,223 (54,5%)
04/30/07: 3,909/5,295 (73.8%)
05/30/07: 4,438/5,938 (74.7%)
06/30/07: 5,164/6,310 (81.8%)

Los Angeles County
08/25/05: 144/12,060 (1.2%)
06/15/06: 698/13,712 (5.1%)
10/31/06: 725/12,136 (6.0%)
11/30/06: 922/13,357 (6.9%)
12/30/06: 1,115/11,451 (9.7%)
01/30/07: 1,306/11,733 (11.1%)
02/27/07: 1,654/12,201 (13.6%)
03/30/07: 2,094/12,440 (16.8%)
04/30/07: 3,297/12,525 (26.3%)
05/30/07: 4,791/14,143 (33.9%)
06/30/07: 5,791/15,110 (38.3%)

Riverside County
08/25/05: 84/7,250 (1.2%)
06/15/06: 420/9,561 (4.4%)
10/31/06: 652/5,798 (11.2%)
11/30/06: 838/6,856 (12.2%)
12/30/06: 976/5,804 (16.8%)
01/30/07: 1,206/6,318 (19.1%)
02/27/07: 1,495/6,814 (21.9%)
03/30/07: 1,989/7,122 (27.9%)
04/30/07: 2,846/7,358 (38.7%)
05/30/07: 3,923/8,478 (46.3%)
06/30/07: 4,519/8,955 (50.5%)

Orange County
08/25/05: 19/4,028 (0.5%)
06/15/06: 152/5,194 (2.9%)
10/31/06: 182/3,094 (5.9%)
11/30/06: 269/3,308 (8.1%)
12/30/06: 331/2,800 (11.8%)
01/30/07: 398/2,890 (13.8%)
02/27/07: 491/3,051 (16.1%)
03/30/07: 613/3,261 (18.8%)
04/30/07: 956/3,368 (28.4%)
05/30/07: 1,239/3,804 (32.6%)
06/30/07: 1,536/3,890 (39.5%)

Ventura County
10/31/06: 95/1,033 (9.2%)
11/30/06: 118/1,133 (10.4%)
12/30/06: 146/1,053 (13.9%)
01/30/07: 165/1,046 (15.8%)
02/27/07: 208/1,206 (17.2%)
03/30/07: 272/1,201 (22.6%)
04/30/07: 392/1,211 (32.4%)
05/30/07: 499/1,306 (38.2%)
06/30/07: 559/1,386 (40.3%)

San Bernardino County
08/25/05: 104/7,252 (1.4%)
06/15/06: 285/8,844 (3.2%)
10/31/06: 314/4,749 (6.6%)
11/30/06: 426/5,617 (7.6%)
12/30/06: 507/4,822 (10.5%)
01/30/07: 629/5,057 (12.4%)
02/27/07: 824/5,517 (14.9%)
03/30/07: 1,073/5,493 (19.5%)
04/30/07: 1,266/5,596 (22.6%)
05/30/07: 2,205/6,467 (34.1%)
06/30/07: 2,802/6,973 (40.2%)

Sacramento 4 County Metro
10/31/06: 671/3,059 (21.9%)
11/30/06: 908/2,985 (30.4%)
12/30/06: 1,062/3,167 (33.5%)
01/30/07: 1,322/5,000 (26.4%)
02/27/07: 2,804/5,209 (53.8%)
03/30/07: 3,581/5,467 (65.5%)
04/30/07: 4,627/5,791 (79.9%)
05/30/07: 5,096/6,639 (76.8%)
06/30/07: 6,285/6,847 (92.8%)

Santa Clara County
10/31/06: 79/1,293 (6.1%)
11/30/06: 101/1,347 (7.5%)
12/30/06: 119/1,195 (10.0%)
01/30/07: 140/1,205 (11.6%)
02/27/07: 161/1,217 (13.2%)
03/30/07: 201/1,253 (16.0%)
04/30/07: 313/1,402 (22.3%)
05/30/07: 392/1,554 (25.2%)
06/30/07: 503/1,698 (29.6%)

Las Vegas/Clark County
10/31/06: 797/6,311 (12.6%)
11/30/06: 1,071/7,222 (14.8%)
12/30/06: 1,240/6,813 (18.2%)
01/30/07: 1,484/6,912 (21.5%)
02/27/07: 2,170/6,560 (33.1%)
03/30/07: 2,533/6,888 (36.8%)
04/30/07: 3,180/7,191 (44.2%)
05/30/07: 3,888/8,250 (47.1%)
06/30/07: 4,528/8,630 (52.5%)

Phoenix Metro/Maricopa-Pinal Counties
10/31/06: 913/6,764 (13.5%)
11/30/06: 1,022/7,307 (14.0%)
12/30/06: 1,148/5,539 (20.7%)
01/30/07: 1,507/5,671 (26.6%)
02/27/07: 2,333/5,571 (41.9%)
03/30/07: 2,747/5,616 (48.9%)
04/30/07: 3,957/6,349 (62.3%)
05/30/07: 5,372/7,079 (75.9%)
06/30/07: 7,753/7,283 (106.5%)

Seattle Metro/King-Snohomish Counties
10/31/06: 195/2,165 (9.0%)
11/30/06: 126/2,376 (5.3%)
12/30/06: 131/1,500 (8.7%)
01/30/07: 146/1,548 (9.4%)
02/27/07: 124/1,503 (8.3%)
03/30/07: 251/1,466 (17.1%)
04/30/07: 511/1,566 (32.6%)
05/30/07: 750/1,742 (43.1%)
06/30/07: 1,134/1,589 (71.4%)

Brookstreet Update: It Depends On What You Mean By “Lunch”

It’s good to be the king!!

Moyers interveiws Morgenson

“What is the use of living, if it be not to strive for noble causes and to make this muddled world a better place for those who will live in it after we are gone? How else can we put ourselves in harmonious relation with the great verities and consolations of the infinite and the eternal? And I avow my faith that we are marching towards better days. Humanity will not be cast down. We are going on swinging bravely forward along the grand high road and already behind the distant mountains is the promise of the sun.”

~ Winston Churchill

S&P, Moody’s, Fitch …Dumb, Blind Or Just A Conflict Of Interest ?

And for your Saturday nite grind, new PRINCE . . .futurebabymama.mp3

Realtors Fudging the Numbers, its a top down thingy . . .

Mystique of Hedge Funds is slipping . . . too mainstream, not much different than big mutual funds anymore unless you stay with the small nimble guys.

Earnings Preview for the week of July 2nd- 6th:

Companies reporting earnings the week of July 2nd- 6th include: Monday: NDN… Tuesday: Half day… Wednesday: Holiday… Thursday: HWAY Friday: No companies are scheduled to report.

Weekly Losers List

Stocks over $5 posting the largest percentage loss over the last five sessions include: IOC -56%, NFI -30%, AHM -18%, BBND -18%, BX -17%, PKTR -17%, USHS -17%, SYNL -17%, IDSA -17%, BZH -16%, IXYS -14%, FRPT -13%, SPAR -13%, TARR -13%, UVE -13%, URZ -12%, FFHL -12%, PTT -12%, WAVE -12%, CT -12%, AUY -12%

Weekly Gainers List

Stocks over $5 posting the largest percentage gain over the last five sessions include: VMSI +49%, SRDX +36%, DSTI +34%, XPRSA +31%, CRYO +29%, HUN +27%, CHZ +25%, SPEC +24%, HOKU +23%, EVST +22%, KOMG +22%, WWWW +21%, GIVN +20%, WBD +19%, NWECW +18%, TLB +18%, SJW +17%, APTM +17%, GTRC +17%, NM +17%, ABXA +17%, BGH +17%, EAS +17%

Subwoofer Truck

Market TRading Patterns around July 4th.

The Paris Hilton Trading System

Man thinks he is living inside Grand Theft Auto: sent to psychiatric facility

Countrywide Subprime Second-Lien ABS Downgraded

Corporate America May save Baby Boomers

Socialists always lose in the End

BX ain’t no GOOG but we bought @ 30
again . . . .

100 Things to look forward to this college football season, not bad for a buckeye.

Talk about a bullish chart . . . .9,495 REO offered for sale on Countrywide Financial’s website

Bear Stearns assured investors on leverage

This market is made for walkers

Just Trade

Deepening debt crisis hits close to home

iF IT works for you and your trading then it must be a good thing.

Uninsured In America

Congress Decides Taking Money From Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae For Housing Fund

KB home takes 175$ million dollar loss and blames oversupply. Who built the homes KB?

Pricing Powder

Construction Capitulation May 2007

AGain a whippy trippy end of month quarter and it was nice day for trading no doubt about it as the early am machine rallies were sold and we are now sitting near the flatline for the day, will they close them flat or take them lower? Only the shadow knows.

Subprime Shoes continue to Drop

Position Sizing and Expectancy

The FED’s Statement Today

Have I got a stock for you . . .

Transcripts of 3rd Democratic Debate

Thankyou and Farewell

Subprime Issues in about the 3rd inning of an extra inning game

Most volatile stocks on Earnings

You can’t make this stuff up.

The Passion of the Jesusphone: iPhone short links roundup

Machines we discussed this am were jamming the markets up for end of month/quarter shenanigans. We did resell the 25 level that we covered earlier as it rallied to 26.5. So look the 5 minute chart and you will see how this chart looks nicely for the shorts.

The market is grinding flat after a take em to the races Machine ordered open, The TICK bombs were up to 1k all am as the machines were buying hand over fist, we sold SPOOs up to 1530 and got out for 2.5 pt gain and are going to take it easy and wait for our prices to be hit again on this markup day. Again, we will be watching the next two weeks as an indication whether or not new highs will be hit in the SPX and will be leaning short up to those old levels until proven wrong.

No inflation yet Fed remains concerned. Same old same old. Story of the Day is RIMM. RIMM up to $200 premarket.

Gapping up: CRYO +51.8%, RIMM +18.8%, KOMG +7.5%, APOL +7.3%, CBH +6.3%, PCLN +3.6%, TASR +3.1%, FLR +3.0%, ARBA +2.9%, JBLU +2.6%… Gapping down: AHM -7.5%, TIBX -4.5%, PALM -4.0%, CPO -2.5%, MT -1.2%, CCL -1.1%.

Here’s a brief list of stocks that closed near key moving averages (20-day ema, 50-day ema/sma, & 200-day ema/sma) yesterday. Stocks that closed near their 20-day ema include: AAPL, MLM, WNG, DJ, & CAF. Stocks that closed near their 50-day ema/sma include: KWK, PBY, NRG, & THE. Stocks that closed near their 200-day ema/sma include: IMCL, NMR, & SCS. Note that this watchlist was compiled from the previous session’s closing price and does not necessarily reflect pre-mkt activity.

Here’s a brief list of stocks that are currently trading at unusually high or low short-term levels. Stocks that are overbought include: BPHX, JASO, QDEL, DSTI, & VRNM. Stocks that are oversold include: CROX, CNIC, LPSN, USHS, UVE, SPAR, BONT, CHKE, JRT, LFG, WHI, IOC, & SYNL. Watch these stocks for potential continuations or corrections from their current states.

Stocks that closed near or at session highs included: RARE, YGE, MDTL, JBLU, CPO, CCI, & CMTL. Stocks that closed near or at session lows included: WLL, BPFH, BZH, RHT, AUY, LSI, CRBC, PPCO, D, & MLHR. Watch these stocks for potential corrections or continuations of yesterday’s action.

Guardian Unlimited reports President Hugo Chavez yesterday hinted that Venezuela could try to become a nuclear power, during a visit to Russia apparently timed to antagonize the White House. Mr Chavez defended Iran’s right to pursue a nuclear programme and said it might be a good idea if Venezuela eventually did the same thing. Speaking before an audience of communists and other elements hostile to America, Mr Chavez said: “Iran has a right to have a peaceful atomic energy industry, as it is a sovereign country… The Brazilian president has declared his atomic energy initiatives, and Brazil has a right to do that as well. Who knows, maybe Venezuela will ultimately follow suit.” Mr Chavez said he wanted a “multi-polar world in which “real freedom” was possible as opposed to “American freedom”, which he characterized as the right to “threaten other nations and destroy cities”.

NY Post reports the $908 mln Caliber Global Investment hedge fund announced it was shutting down after its mgmt co, Cambridge Place Investment Mgmt, concluded that losses in mortgage and structured product bonds could not be made up. The fund is set to wind down over the next 12 months. Caliber’s collapse is the second example within the week of the spreading woes from subprime mortgages, as Queens Walk Investment, a London-based mortgage investment fund managed by Cheyne Capital, reported a $91 mln annual loss. According to statements by Cheyne’s portfolio managers, Queens Walk had leverage levels of 28.5x its capital, and with 12% of its capital in U.S. subprime mortgage bonds, suffered severe losses over the past two weeks. Even Carlyle Group, the $59 bln private-equity colossus, has felt the mkt’s concerns over mortgage credit. Yesterday, Carlyle’s fund mgmt arm, Carlyle Capital, said it was trimming the size of a mortgage investment fund’s stock offering to $300 mln from $400 mln. It also reduced the share price to $19 from an original range of between $20 and $22

JMP Securities says their recent Platntronics (PLT 25.42) channel checks suggest a newly released Altec Lansing product im600 is off to a solid start. Although the feedback they’ve received is very positive, the co has laid out an 18-month timeframe for the AEG division to return to profitability, and the firm wants to get more visibility on improvements in the AEG segment, so they maintain their Market Perform rating, but believe the data points they have received signal a positive direction… Calyon notes that MBIA (MBI 63.47) announced that Eurotunnel’s Safeguard plan has been implemented. Accordingly, the co no longer has any exposure to any Eurotunnel debt. Separately, the firm wasere encouraged to see that a number of buyout debt offerings were pulled as fixed income investors now appear to be demanding a higher return for accepting risk. If the push for higher interest rates continues and more favorable covenants are demanded, spreads will move higher. They say financial guaranty insurers like MBI should then see much better underwriting opportunities as their pricing is linked to spreads. This supports the firm’s upgrade of MBI yesterday… Jefferies comments on Allegheny Energy (AYE 52.02), noting that as they initially expected and already incorporate in their estimates, the State Corporation Commission denied Potomac Edison’s request for a rate increase to cover for its purchased power costs in Virginia. They note The SCC denied the request based on the MOU the co signed in 2000, in which Potomac agreed to eliminated separate recovery of fuel expenses through the fuel factor and agreed to forego any rate increase associated with the fuel costs during the rate cap period in Virginia, which goes through 2008. Firm maintains their 2007, 2008, and 2009 EPS estimates.

Filings: Avigen (AVGN) files for a $200 mln mixed shelf offering… Morgans Hotel Group (MHGC) files for a $500 mln mixed shelf offering… Global Traffic Network (GNET) files for 4.5 mln share common stock offering… Integrated BioPharma (INBP) files for a 2.3 mln share common stock offering by selling shareholders… Offerings: Peregrine Pharmaceuticals (PPHM) announces a $22.5 mln common stock registered direct offering… Pricings: Crown Castle (CCI 35.83) prices a 36.38 mln share common stock offering at $35.83/share… Otelco (OTT 19.93) prices a 3 mln share common stock offering at $19.80/share… TravelCenters of America (TA 41.10) prices a 4.86 mln share common stock offering at $41.10/share.

Upgrades: J.P Morgan upgrades Flour (FLR 105.4 to Overweight from Neutral based on citing the increased leverage it sees in the government segment over the next three to five years owing to a contract recently won with the U.S. Army… UBS upgrades Netlogic (NETL 30.49) to Buy from Neutral. Downgrades: UBS downgrades MGIC Investment (MTG 57.83) and PMI Group (PMI 46.50) to Neutral from Buy. Miscellaneous: JP Morgan initiates Virgin Media (VMED 24.70) with a Neutral… JP Morgan initiates Tim Hortons (THI 30.69) with a Neutral… BofA initiates Northstar Neuroscience (NSTR 11.33) with a Buy and a $17 tgt… Citigroup initiates Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG 85.52) with a Buy and $100 tgt… First Albany initiates Citi Trends (CTRN 38.56) with a Buy and a $45 tgt… J.P Morgan initiates Basic Energy Services (BAS 25.92) with a Neutral… J.P Morgan initiates Texas Capital (TCBI 21.96) with an Overweight… J.P Morgan initiates First Financial Bankshares (FFIN 38.95) and Prosperity Bancshares (PRSP 33.6 with a Neutral… J.P Morgan initiates Franklin Bank (FBTX 15.92) with an Underweight… Piper Jaffray raises their Deckers Outdoors (DECK 99.57) tgt to $110 from $77… UBS initiates Empire District (EDE 22.92) with a Neutral.

Upgrades: Citigroup upgrades Fannie Mae (FNM 65.31) to Buy from Hold… BofA upgrades Research in Motion (RIMM 165.59) to Buy from Neutral… Friedman Billings upgrades Santarus (SNTS 5.01) to Outperform from Market Perform and maintains their $7 tgt, based on an agreement with Victory Pharma to co-promote the non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drug NSAID Naprelan and Zegerid prescription growth trends starting to look more favorable… JMP upgrades Research in Motion (RIMM 165.59) to Outperform from Market Perform with a $240 tgt after the co reported a stellar May quarter and indicated that more is on the horizon. Downgrades: Deutsche Bank downgrades Palm (PALM 16.56) to Sell from Hold and lowers their tgt to $14 from $17.50, following Q407 revenues that were below firm and consensus estimates, EPS ahead of firm and consensus estimates and Q1 guidance that was below firm and consensus expectations… Deutsche Bank downgrades Komag (KOMG 29.5 to Hold from Buy and maintains their $33 tgt, following the announcement that Western Digital will acquire the co for $32.25/share in a cash tender offer… Baird downgrades Komag (KOMG 29.5 to Neutral from Outperform and raises their tgt to $32 from $31, as KOMG agreed to be acquired by Western Digital for $32.25/share… JMP Securities downgrades Chordiant Software (CHRD 16.02) to Market Outperform from Strong Buy and raises their tgt to $18 from $15, based on valuation… Piper Jaffray downgrades Komag (KOMG 29.5 to Market Perform from Outperform… J.P Morgan downgrades TIM Participacoes (TSU 35.70) to Neutral from Overweight… Friedman Billings downgrades American Home Mortgage Investment (AHM 20.91) to Underperform from Market Perform and lowers their tgt to $15 from $25, following an annnouncement of materially higher early payment default trends, which will result in a Q207 GAAP loss.

Upgrades: Deutsche Bank upgrades Community Health Systems (CYH 39.3 to Buy from Hold and raises their tgt to $47 from $39, as they believe the co came out well with its debt financing considering recent trouble in the credit markets and think incremental news/information from here should be net positive as CYH unveils its integration plans… Deutsche Bank upgrades Rohm & Haas (ROH 53.76) to Buy from Hold and raises their tgt to $65 from $55, as they believe concerns such as housing exposure, electronics margins and monomer earnings are overdone, growth will accelerate in ‘08-’10 driven by operating leverage and the lack of one-time ‘07 costs and see upside from a Salt sale and new products… Friedman Billings upgrades Cognos (COGN 39.21) to Outperform from Market Perform and raises their tgt to $48 from $45, as they believe an enhanced Cognos 8 release combined with increased sales capacity could lead to improving revenue and EPS growth and view the co’s business as strong, driven by solid end-market demand, a trend toward BI standardization, and a robust product cycle… RBC upgrades Research in Motion (RIMM 165.59) to Top Pick from Outperform.

Miscellaneous: Rodman & Renshaw initiates Santarus (SNTS 5.01) with a Outperform and sets an $8 tgt, based on Zegerid for heartburn symptoms which has a run-rate of approx $80 mln and has increased the sequential growth rate during Q207 from the previous quarter… Kaufman initiates Asta Funding (ASFI 38.50) with a Buy and sets a $55 tgt, based on the co benefiting from the consistent, upward trend in consumer debt levels and the 4% - 6% annual rate of charge-offs of these obligations and believe companies like Asta can achieve net margins in the 35%-40%+ range and ROI’s of 25%+ due to the revenues generated from these collections… SunTrust initiates Unit Corp. (UNT 62.64) with a Buy and sets a $95 tgt, based on excellent exposure to U.S. natural gas and core competencies that include engineering/operating capability and geologic/geophysical understanding of Pennsylvania-age formations in the Anadarko/Arkoma basins and Tertiary-age formations along the Gulf Coast and drilling/E&P operating efficiency… Morgan Keegan initiates Universal Truckload Services (UACL 21.2 with a Market Perform, based on the co’s exposure to a challenging Q107 freight environment yet believe it has established a fairly consistent record for high returns on capital, solid free cash flow and acquisition execution… Baird initiates WNS Holdings Ltd (WNS 28.51) with a Neutral and sets a $33 tgt, based on valuation and view the secular growth in Indian offshore BPO are robust while recent execution has been outstanding.. Baird initiates ExlService Holdings (EXLS 19.00) with an Outperform and sets a $25 tgt, as they view the secular theme as compelling and consider the co’s recent execution as outstanding.

Sensex rises by more than 108 points in early trade - The Hindu.com

The Hindu.com reports the benchmark Sensex rose by over 108 points in early trade on the Bombay Stock Exchange today on the back of buying by funds in select heavy-weight stocks led by cements and capital goods segments. The BSE-30 share index Sensex, which had gained 73.51 points in the previous trade, gained another 108.51 points at 14,613.08 in the first five minutes of trading. Similarly, the wide-based National Stock Exchange’s Nifty rose by 24.35 points at 4,306.35.

Asian stocks advance for second day, led by Toyota; China falls - Bloomberg.com

Bloomberg.com reports Asian stocks climbed for a second day, led by Sony, after Japan’s household spending rose and its jobless rate stayed at a nine-yr low, signaling strengthening demand in the region’s biggest economy. Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average added 1.2% to 18,138.36, its best performance this month. Other markets open for trading climbed, except for South Korea, Taiwan and Hong Kong. Malaysia was little changed. China’s CSI 300 dropped 2.5% on concern signs of accelerating economic growth will prompt the government to raise interest rates.

European stocks fall, led by banks, insurers; BP advances - Bloomberg.com

Bloomberg.com European stocks fell before reports in the U.S. that may shed light on growth and the outlook for inflation in the world’s largest economy. The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index fell 0.2% to 390.70 as of 10:55 a.m. in London. National benchmarks decreased in 10 of the 17 western European markets that were open. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 lost 0.3%. France’s CAC 40 and Germany’s DAX were little changed.

Reuters reports bank regulators have agreed on new standards for subprime mortgage loans and are prepared to release it Friday, several sources familiar with the matter said Thursday. The five regulators released a draft of the guidance in early March, and have been consulting both internally and externally on how to refine the standards that will guide how depository lenders make loans to borrowers with damaged credit. The draft called on mortgage lenders to take more care when dealing with less credit-worthy borrowers by assessing whether they can cover long-term payments and warning them about hidden costs. It also asks lenders to weigh a “borrower’s ability to repay the debt by its final maturity at the fully indexed rate.” That provision is tougher than many lenders had hoped, as qualifying borrowers at the “fully indexed rate” could put a crimp in standards that evolved during the housing boom. The sources, who are familiar with the regulators’ deliberations, said the final guidance will largely track the earlier draft.

The Fed made no changes and the market essentially closes flat. Spoos 1525 to 1520 paid us nicely. Now 1519 as we close weak. We will be back tomorrow for next round. 1540 we really get short or spoos up there.

Shanghai Cheerleader seeks Western Male

How Can I learn to Trade

Obama Girl

This pretty much makes me puke . . .

Amaranth case puts spotlight on loopholes

Assessing your Personal Strengths in Trading

The Dot Com Legacy

Amen Pradeep, on your Goals of Trading, Just do it, or don’t.

Do you miss Mancini Tunes . . this market puts me in the mood “kid” . . kid.mp3

BIS warns of Great Depression dangers from credit spree

The times they are o’changin

When mainstream analysts compare CDOs to “subslime”, “toxic waste” and “six-inch hooker heels”…

A Message To Robert Toll - You Are Inviting the Fox Into the Henhouse

You can Tell, Group called Bears, can’t be that bad right? youcantell.mp3

A New Flavor of Mortgage Trouble

Most Annoying Songs Ever, you’re beautiful

Paris is changed, no really.

Notable Calls on NKTR

The Bears theme song. Try Walking in my Shoes depechemode-walkinginmyshoes.mp3

Hanging with Mr. Cooper

Burningman goes Mainstream, is it alternative anymore?

Short Interest Continues upward hoe

The Mets deserve Wally Beckman

So Truck Tonnage is down, what slowdown?

Banks set to call Loans, how come the British can see our problems, but we are blind? Maybe because they have walked our shoes as a former Imperialist Nation.

What’s it cost to kill a bear?

Guitar Hero Battle

ESPN GameDay to open in Blacksburg

CDO hedge funds = Enron?