Trading for the Masses

What do they Know?

Greenback Blues

Buffett Sell Signal

GorillaTrades Unmasked

99 things every real Cubs fan should know

Day Trading: Much to Do to Get Nothing? Common Wisdom Put to the Test

Legislative Inaction Forces State GovernmentShutdown in Michigan

Pre-teen prodigy at quarterback growing up fast

Murray gives Cubs batting tips, jokes about buying team

All is right with the world October 1 warnings are shrugged off and the bulls are off to the races. Can’t fight this tape today as new highs are being hit all over. Oil down 2% and I would buy dips back to 70, but that’s a long way away. Very slow day for this trader as we grind to the days highs into the last hour would be my bet.

Welcome to the Fall period with futures flat lining and C warning and guiding down 60%. Market shrugging it off premarket and staying with the flat theme. There hasn’t been much volume over the past few weeks post fed. What will get us back on the horse on the volume side I really don’t know. Jobs report on Friday the biggie this week otherwise slow ghost should continue until the market wakes up.

Research In Motion (RIMM) introduces the BlackBerry Pearl 8130, the first BlackBerry Pearl smartphone to run on C.D.M.A. networks… ENGlobal (ENG) announces that its wholly-owned subsidiary, ENGlobal Technical Services, is one of three firms that have been awarded a Multiple Award, Indefinite Delivery/Indefinite Quantity cost-plus-fixed-fee, performance-based contract by the U.S. Navy… Westmoreland Coal (WLB) announces that its 80% owned subsidiary, Westmoreland Resources, has redeemed Washington Group International’s 20% ownership interest in W.R.I., which owns and operates the Absaloka Mine. The redemption leaves WLB as the sole shareholder in W.R.I… Hawaiian Airlines (HA) announces it has received approval from the U.S. Department of Transportation to provide nonstop flights between Honolulu and Manila in the Philippines… Technology Investment Capital (TICC) announces that it intends to change its name to TICC Capital Corp.

FDA cites cold-medicine risks for children - WSJ
WSJ reports an FDA analysis suggests the use of prescription and over-the-counter cough and cold medications in children younger than 6 has been tied to serious side effects, including death, agency safety reviewers said. The reviewers wrote that the product labels should be changed to state that decongestants and cough medicines aren’t recommended for children under 2 and products with antihistamines aren’t recommended for children younger than 6. The use of the drugs in children younger than 6 appears to be “associated with serious adverse events, including death,” while their benefits “have largely not been quantified,” the reviewers wrote. Cold and cough products are made by several manufacturers including JNJ, WYE, PG, and NVS.

WAG Walgreen misses by $0.07, reports revs in-line (47.24 )
Reports Q4 (Aug) earnings of $0.40 per share, $0.07 worse than the Reuters Estimates consensus of $0.47; revenues rose 10.3% year/year to $13.42 bln vs the $13.51 bln consensus. Chairman says, “This quarter was negatively impacted by lower generic drug reimbursements, combined with higher salary and store expenses, and higher advertising costs. Our expenses weren’t in line with the level of reimbursements we were receiving. Managing both expenses and lower reimbursements on some generic drugs is my top priority. We’re going to fix this, and at the same time continue our aggressive growth plan.”

NVT Navteq: Details of reported acquisition by Nokia (77.97 ) -Update-
Nokia (NOK) and NVT confirm a definitive agreement for NOK to acquire NVT. Under the terms of the agreement, NOK will pay $78 in cash for each share of NVT including outstanding options for an aggregate purchase price of approximately $8.1 bln… Nokia anticipates that the acquisition would not impact its share buy-backs under the current mandate, or its future cash distribution strategy in terms of dividends and share buybacks which is subject to the shareholders’ approval. The acquisition is expected to be dilutive to Nokia earnings in 2008 and 2009 on a reported basis. However on a cash basis Nokia expects it to be only slightly dilutive in 2008 and slightly accretive in 2009.

AMGN Amgen downgradedto Hold at Stifel (56.57 )
Stifel downgrades AMGN to Hold from a Trading Buy on valuation, based on their projections for diminished ESA sales in domestic and international markets without a near-term reprieve

MER Merrill Lynch tgt cut to $102 from $106 at Lehman; Q3 profit ests cut (71.28 )

UA Under Armour upgraded to Buy from Accumulate at ThinkEquity (59.82 )

NTAP Network Appliance announced a joint collaboration with Oracle (26.91 )
Co announces the joint collaboration on the development of Direct NFS Client, a breakthrough innovation included in Oracle Database 11g that helps provide customers with improved performance, simplified management, increased flexibility, and better application availability. Leveraging its experience in delivering simplified storage solutions for production grid environments, most notably as a storage platform for Oracle On Demand, NetApp collaborated with Oracle to provide Oracle Database 11g with significant performance improvements in IP-based environments.

Citigroup upgrades select homebuilders
Citigroup upgrades CTX, DHI, LEN, PHM, and RYL to Buy from Hold, and downgrades MTH and MDC to Hold from Buy (the latter two on valuation). Firm expects the larger-cap builders and those with the strongest balance sheets to benefit most from any near-term bounce, much as they did coming out of the 1990 trough.

NCC National City downgraded to Underperform from Outperform at Bear Stearns (25.09 )

S&P futures vs fair value: -0.8. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -3.0.
Futures indicate a near flat open despite an earnings warning from Citigroup and news that UBS will write-off about $3.4 billion in value on its fixed income assets.

CTXS Citrix Systems: Downgrade details (40.32 )
Bank of America downgraded CTXS to a Neutral from a Buy on valuation. The firm says the co’s base business comps will start to get progressively tougher after 3Q. The firm also says the $50 mln rev estimate for XenSource in ‘08 is not a given, and see only modest room for near-term margin upside as the co continues to build out the channel around the networking group and XenSource. The firm says the downgrade is not a call on 3Q, which they believe is shaping up well.

ADBE Adobe, Microsoft Widen Data Services; Adobe announces acquisition - WSJ (43.66 )
WSJ reports MSFT and ADBE are taking new steps to move some of the most basic chores of personal computers to the Internet. Microsoft is rolling out a free service that lets users of its Office software create and share documents over the Internet in new ways. The move comes as GOOG, Microsoft’s nemesis in Internet search, has been trying to popularize Web services that handle key functions of Office. Adobe today will announce plans to move into online word processing by acquiring Virtual Ubiquity, a closely held co in Massachusetts that offers a service called Buzzword. Terms of the acquisition weren’t disclosed. Adobe, known for software used in electronic publishing, also plans to unveil an online document-sharing service called Share. Both services will be free, though Adobe plans to charge for extra features later.

QCOM Qualcomm signs 3G worldwide subscriber unit and modem card license agreement with CNTF (42.26 )
Co announces that it has granted TechFaith Wireless Technology Group, a wholly-owned subsidiary of China TechFaith Wireless Communication Technology (CNTF), a royalty-bearing, worldwide license under Qualcomm’s patent portfolio to develop, manufacture and sell subscriber units and modem cards implementing the WCDMA and TD-SCDMA standards. TechFaith is now licensed by Qualcomm for 3G subscriber units and modem cards that implement the CDMA2000, WCDMA/UMTS and/or TD-SCDMA standards. The royalties payable by TechFaith are at Qualcomm’s standard worldwide rates and are the same irrespective of the CDMA standard implemented by the subscriber unit or modem card.

CS Credit Suisse sees 3Q profit - AP (66.33 )
AP reports the bank said Monday that it expects to report a third-quarter profit of at least 1 bln Swiss francs ($860 mln) despite turmoil in the mkt. The co said, “Credit Suisse Group has no indication that its net income from continuing operations after tax for the third quarter will fall outside the range of plus or minus 20 percent of 1.30 billion francs,” ($1.1 bln). Credit Suisse released its statement after crosstown rival UBS said it would have a loss for the quarter because of the subprime mortgage crisis. The bank said it was still finalizing its results for the three months ended Sept. 30 and was able to make only a preliminary prediction. Credit Suisse Group expects net income for the first nine months of 2007 to be at a record level when it publishes its results Nov. 1.

TARR Tarragon announces reinstatement of $79.6 mln of Fannie Mae loans; suspends quarterly dividends on 10% cumulative preferred stock (2.62 )
Co announced that it has entered into an agreement with the Federal National Mortgage Association, or Fannie Mae, to reinstate a combined $79.6 mln in loans it made to Tarragon and/or its affiliates. In addition, TARR has restored loans from five other lenders totaling $56.6 mln to good standing, and has reached an agreement in principal with another lender to reinstate an additional $73.2 mln in loans in connection with the proposed sale of a property anticipated to close by October 15, 2007. Tarragon’s agreements with GECC and Fannie Mae, and its ongoing negotiations with its other significant lenders, are part of an overall plan designed to restore the co’s liquidity and improve its financial condition. The plan currently contemplates additional property sales, the proceeds of which would be used to repay or bring current Tarragon’s obligations under other loan agreements and to provide Tarragon with additional liquidity. TARR also announced today that its board of directors approved the suspension of the payment of quarterly dividends on Tarragon’s 10% cumulative preferred stock to preserve liquidity as negotiations continue with other significant lenders.

DRYS DryShips tgt raised to $108 at Cantor (90.84 )
Cantor raises their tgt on DRYS to $108 from $94. Firm is upping their spot rate forecasts for the remainder of 2007 and 2008. They now expect DRYS to achieve an average daily rate of $88,250 and $94,250 in 2007 and 2008 for its Capesize vessels (from $78,250 and $90,000), $44,625 and $51,250 for its Panamax vessels (from $39,000 and $45,750) and $38,250 and $39,750 for its Handymax vessels (from $35,000 and $30,250). Firm raises their 2007 and 2008 EPS ests to $9.48 and $12.48 (from $7.75 and $10.81), respectively.

Downgrades: Friedman Billings downgrades Par Pharmaceutical Companies (PRX 18.56) to Underperform from Market Perform and lowers their tgt to $14 from $25, following first time ‘07 guidance that indicated a dramatic slowdown in 2H07, due to additional competition for key products such as fluticasone and propranolol extended release… RBC downgrades CGI Group (GIB 11.40) to Sector Perform from Outperform… Bank of America downgrades Citrix Systems (CTXS 40.32) to a Neutral from a Buy… Deutsche Bank downgrades VistaCare (VSTA 6.54) to Sell from Hold… Miscellaneous: Bear Stearns initiates Tenneco (TEN 31.01) with an Underperform… JP Morgan initiates Heartland Payment Systems (HPY 25.70) with a Neutral… Deutcshe Bank reinstates Fairchild Semiconductor (FCS 18.6 with a Buy… Deutsche Banks initiates LKQ Corp (LKQX 34.81) with a Hold… Bank of America initates Supervalu (SVU 39.01) with a Sell… JP Morgan initiates Charter Communications (CHTR 2.5 with an Overweight… Lehman reinstates Harman International (HAR 86.52) with an Overweight.

Semiconductor Industry Association says worldwide semiconductor sales up sharply in August
The Semiconductor Industry Association announces that worldwide sales of semiconductors rose sharply in August, growing to $21.6 bln, an increase of 4.5% over August 2006, when sales were $20.5 bln, and an increase of 4.9% from July of this year when sales were $20.6 bln. Sales of NAND flash memory devices led the growth as supplies tightened and prices firmed. NAND flash sales were up by 48% compared to August 2006 and up by 19% from July of this year.

C Citigroup expects “substantial decline” in Q3 net income, sees a YoY decline of 60% (46.67 )
Co announced that dislocations in the mortgage-backed securities and credit markets, and deterioration in the consumer credit environment are expected to have an adverse impact on Q3 financial results. Citi currently estimates that it will report a decline in net income in the range of 60% from the prior-year quarter, subject to finalizing third quarter results. “Our expected third quarter results are a clear disappointment. The decline in income was driven primarily by weak performance in fixed income credit market activities, write-downs in leveraged loan commitments, and increases in consumer credit costs,” said Charles Prince, Chairman and CEO of Citi. “Our fixed income trading business has a long history of earnings power and success, as shown in this year’s record first half results. In September, this business performed at more normalized levels and we see this quarter’s overall poor trading performance as an aberration. While we cannot predict market conditions or other unforeseeable events that may affect our businesses, we expect to return to a normal earnings environment in the fourth quarter.” Co cites write-downs of approximately $1.4 bln pre-tax, net of underwriting fees, on funded and unfunded highly leveraged finance commitments… Losses of approximately $1.3 bln pre-tax, net of hedges, on the value of sub-prime mortgage-backed securities warehoused for future collateralized debt obligation (”CDO”) securitizations, CDO positions, and leveraged loans warehoused for future collateralized loan obligation (”CLO”) securitizations… Losses of approximately $600 mln pre-tax in fixed income credit trading due to significant market volatility and the disruption of historical pricing relationships.

YHOO Yahoo! and TEF announced an agreement for making YHOO’s oneSearch the main search service on TEF’s mobile portals (26.84 )Telefonica (TEF) and YHOO announce a global agreement providing a framework for making oneSearch, Yahoo!’s mobile search product, the main search service on Telefonica’s mobile portals in 15 countries in Europe and Latin America, potentially reaching more than 100 mlnconsumers worldwide.

Upgrades: Citigroup upgrades Kilroy Realty (KRC 60.63) to Buy from Hold… Lehman upgrades Intersil (ISIL 33.43) to Equal-weight from Underweight..Davenport upgrades Texas Industries (TXI 78.50) to Buy from Neutral… UBS upgrades SXC Health Solutions (SXCI 16.02) to Buy from Neutral… Downgrades: Citigroup downgrades AMR (AMR 22.29) to Hold from Buy… Citigroup downgrades Southwest Airlines (LUV 14.80) to Hold from Buy… JP Morgan downgrades TIM Participacoes SA (TSU 40.56) to Neutral from Overweight… Merrill Lynch downgrades Plum Creek Timber (PCL 44.76) to Neutral from Buy… UBS downgrades 3Com (COMS 4.94) to Neutral from Buy… Merrill Lynch downgrades Ryonier (RYN 48.04) to Sell from Buy.. Lehman downgrades Integrated Device Technology (IDTI 15.4 to Equal-weight from Overweight… . Lehman downgrades Marvell (MRVL 16.37) to Equal-weight from Overweight… Lehman downgrades NetLogic Microsystems (NETL 36.11) to Equal-weight from Overweight… RBC downgrades Research In Motion (RIMM 98.55) to Outperform from Top Pick based on valuation; tgt increased to $115 from $110..

European travel stocks climb, led by Air France, TUI; UBS falls - Bloomberg.com
Bloomberg.com reports European travel and leisure stocks rose, led by Air France-KLM Group after Goldman Sachs advised buying the airline’s shares on speculation a drop in the last two months doesn’t reflect the earnings outlook… National benchmarks fell in 11 of the 17 western European markets that were open. France’s CAC 40 lost 0.2%, while the U.K.’s FTSE 100 added 0.2%. Germany’s DAX slid 0.1%.

Asian stocks rise to a record; Sony, DBS, Newcrest Mining gain - Bloomberg.com
Bloomberg.com reports Asian stocks rose, driving a regional benchmark to a third straight record, after business confidence unexpectedly held near a two-year high in Japan and Singapore home loans grew at the fastest pace since March 2005… Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average advanced 0.4%. Shares fell in Australia, while other regional markets rose. Hong Kong and China were shut for holidays… The Karachi Stock Exchange 100 Index was the region’s best- performing benchmark, surging 2.9% after Pakistan’s Supreme Court ruled that President Pervez Musharraf will be able to seek a second five-year term in an Oct. 6 election… Singapore’s Straits Times Index climbed 1.3%.

Sensex up 112pts; breadth firm - The Business Standard
The Business Standard reports the Sensex is now up 112 points at 17,403. Out of 2,813 stocks traded so far, 1,740 have advanced, 1,024 have declined and 49 are unchanged.

Upgrades: Broadpoint Securities upgrades NutriSystem (NTRI 46.89) to Strong Buy from Buy, as they believe the Alli threat is exaggerated and Q307 “tough comp” from Q306 campaign is more than adequately reflected in consensus expectations… Wachovia upgrades Chicago Mercantile Exchange Holdings (CME 587.35) to Outperform from Market Perform, based on a change in the macro environment that should benefit the co’s trading volumes… Downgrades: Deutsche Bank downgrades ConocoPhillips (COP 87.77) to Sell from Hold and lowers their tgt to $80 from $84, based on an important potentially negative catalyst coming with an Oct 3 trading statement that outlines performance for Q3 and may raise concerns over Q4 with refining margins and natural gas prices starting the quarter at weak levels… Deutsche Bank downgrades VistaCare (VSTA 6.66) to Sell from Hold and lowers their tgt to $5.50 from $8.00, as they believe any potential sale of the co is at least 9 months to 12 months out — and likely at lower valuations… Miscellaneous: Deutsche Bank initiates LKQ Corp. (LKQX 34.81) with a Hold and sets a $35 tgt, based on valuation and believe the combination of strong organic growth and synergies from LKQ’s consolidation strategy should drive 20%-25% earnings growth through the end of the decade…

Bond Watch: Poking Higher
The market is modestly bid to begin the week with most talk on trading desks focused on Q3 warnings for brutal bank earnings (Citi, UBS). Given the overnight action, though, much of the bad news looks to be factored in with global equities off only a bit as the flight to quality has been minimal. The 2-10-yr yield spread is twisting back out to 60.7 after seeing a little unwinding of steepeners late last week. Bond prices in the EuroZone are off despite equities slipping & slightly soft data while in Japan bond prices were given a boost by yield seekers. Treasuries will see how manufacturing is holding up nationally today following some not-so bad regional indexes recently. While there is likely to be some swings around the number, particularly on a surprise, trade is already looking ahead to Fri’s payrolls for confirmation on the declining jobs picture which has yet to show up in initial claims data. Until then, the broader picture remains consolidative with some hints of a near-term price bottom being made last week. Should the mid-tier numbers prove not-so bad that bottom is likely to be tested again. The buck is showing some signs of life after being mowed down last week. The lowly dollar has brushed the euro back from lifetime highs around 1.4300 while the yen is weak. Currencies await big BOE & ECB meetings this week. Spot gold is off at 742.59 (-1.01) while crude oil is lighter at 81.36 (-0.30). The calendar has ISM manufacturing (10) along with vehicle sales through the day. There is no scheduled Fed-speak. The euro is at 1.4224 & the yen is at 115.8200 while the 10-yr is +03/32nds yielding 4.573%.

Gapping up: CNTF +42.8%, TARR +20.2%, YTEC +12.0%, VELC +10.6%, CACS +10.5%, CNIC +9.9%, BCON +10.2%, KONG +5.5%, BLC +5.0%, CRDC +3.8%, NTRI +3.7%, BRLC +3.4%, CRNT +3.2%, ENT +3.0%… Gapping down: RVSN -11.7%, CVS -7.1%, WAG -6.3%, ACXM -4.0% (stock is now halted), ALU -3.4%, GRMN -3.7%, NOK -3.0%, C -2.6%, CTXS -2.1%, WFC -1.7%, DB -1.6%.

AAPL Apple tgt raised to $175 at Caris (153.47 )
Caris raises their tgt on AAPL to $175 from $165 as they are increasing their ests of MAC shipments and tweaking their iPhone ests. Key reasons include: 1) strong MAC sales (PC market strong, AAPL being a share gainer, recent MacBook/iMAC refreshes helping) and 2) better iPhone unit sales following the recent price drop.

SNDA Shanda Interactive: Highly possible that the co can beat consensus again - Pali Research (37.18 ) -Update-
Pali Research notes that during the last two weeks, SNDA conducted a series of investor-relation activities including roadshow meetings and conference presentations, which they believe has resulted in increasing interest in the stock. The firm believes SNDA’s business in 3Q07 is trending well, saying it is highly possible that the co can beat consensus again.

KeyBanc downgrades CLDN and LSTR to Hold
KeyBanc notes freight fundamentals trended weaker than they expected during 3Q07, and firm does not anticipate an improvement for the balance of 2007. Further, given their belief current market conditions could persist for the next several quarters and the lack of meaningful near-term catalysts, they are downgrading shares of Celadon Group (CLDN) and Landstar System (LSTR) to Hold from Buy given their exposure to the domestic truckload market.

YTEC Yucheng Technologies announces three call center contract wins with China Construction Bank (9.60 )
Co announces three contract wins to provide call center solution and implementation services to China Construction Bank, one of top four commercial banks in China. Yucheng will be assisting China Construction Bank with its call center integration of five provinces, as well as the upgrade and capacity expansion of its national credit card call center. These three contracts amount to RMB 67 million (approximately US$8.9 mln) and the projects are expected to be completed by the end of this ye