Gapping up: VIAC +50.9%, LUM +26.5%, PDLI +7.2%, PKX +6.4%, LFC +6.2%, MVSN +3.2%, CHL +3.2%, FXI +2.7%, CHU +2.7%, BIDU +2.7%, CBH +2.0%, NBL ++2.1%, CPSL +1.5%… Gapping down: EFJI -24.5%, HMY -4.5%, GOLD -3.8%, RTP -2.7%, TOT -2.7%, SAP -2.3%, BHP -1.9%, GLD -1.7%, BP -1.6%.
Research In Motion (RIMM) introduced the GPS-enabled BlackBerry Curve 8310 to mobile users in Latin America… RF Monolithics (RFMI) announces it has expanded its distribution capability and increased product availability across all of Asia with the appointment of Nu Horizons Electronics (NUHC) as an authorized Asian distributor for its component products and its Cirronet ZigBee and wireless sensor networking modules and devices… Emergent BioSolutions (EBS), announces that on Sep 28 it completed an initial delivery of doses of BioThrax (Anthrax Vaccine Adsorbed) to the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services for inclusion into the strategic national stockpile. As a result of this initial delivery of doses into the S.N.S., the co estimates it will report approx $42 mln in BioThrax revs for 3Q07… Yahoo! (YHOO) Search announces Search Assist to help make Web search effortless for consumers… PepsiCo (PEP) announces that it has agreed to acquire Comercio de Doces Lucky, a Brazilian snack co… Mesa Air Group (MESA) announces the commencement of commercial regional jet air services by Kunpeng Airlines in The Peoples Republic of China… — LoJack (LOJN) announces that the Massachusetts Supreme Judicial Court denied any further appellate review of the judgment in the litigation between LoJack and Clare, a subsidiary of IXYS Corp (IXYS). As a result, the Massachusetts Appeals Court award of approximately $1.2 mln in damages and interest stands and such amount has been paid to LoJack… Cooper Industries (CBE) announces a joint venture with the Nature Science and Technolog, a privately-held medium voltage indoor switchgear manufacturer based in Zhejiang province, China
BID Sotheby’s: Expect strong Q3, increasing estimates - JMP (48.75 )
JMP raises their Q3 & 2008-08 ests, as they remain optimistic that the robust demand for high-end art will continue through the Nov auctions. Firm also says there may still be upside to their estimates, as the actual value and buyer’s commission rate for the private sale of the Rostropovich collection was not disclosed. Firm is also being conservative modeling a seller’s commission margin of zero.
RIMM Research In Motion: Downgrade details (98.66 ) -Update-
Raymond James downgraded RIMM to Market Perform from Outperform and raised their tgt to $100 from $92 ahead of the co’s 2Q08 earnings results on Thurs., Oct. 4th. The firm cites valuation and a less compelling risk/reward outlook.
C Citigroup and KKR to form loan vehicle - FT (47.72 ) -Update-
FT reports Kohlberg Kravis Roberts and the bank are understood to have agreed to form an off-balance sheet vehicle with about $5 bln of equity and $10 bln of debt to buy impaired loans, which could include some from Citigroup’s investment bank. The vehicle could allow Citigroup to sell some LBO debt, which it has underwritten but is struggling to syndicate, as well as other troubled loans. A Citigroup executive said such deals would be done at arms-length. It would be the first time a private equity firm has formed such a venture with an investment bank and is surprising as KKR irritated many bankers by refusing to back down on the terms of the debt agreed for several of its deals.
ICE IntercontinentalExchange reports ICE Futures Europe reached a record 598,651 contracts traded in September (154.00 )Co reports average daily volume (ADV) for ICE Futures Europe reached a record 598,651 contracts traded in September 2007, an increase of 33.7% over September 2006. ADV at ICE Futures U.S. was 241,898 contracts in September 2007, up 22.4% from September 2006. Average daily commissions for ICE’s global over-the-counter business were a record $975,828, a 21.1% increase over September 2006.
GME Gamestop tgt raised to $61 at Lazard; ests raised on healthy industry sales trends (56.15 )
Lazard is raising their ests and tgt on GME as they believes Q3 is tracking well on healthy industry sales trends and positive momentum from the launch of Halo 3. Firm’s revised 3Q rev and pro-forma EPS ests are $1.42 bln and $0.22, respectively, up from $1.41 bln and $0.20 — ahead of guidance and consensus. Firm’s F2007 ests move to $6.45 bln and $1.51, up from $6.44 bln and $1.49. Firm’s tgt is raised to $61 from $52.
WAG Walgreen reports September comparable same store sales +4.7% (40.16 )
SPWR Sunpower announced that it will work with Korean energy company EnE System to build a 2-megawatt solar electric power plant in Jeonju, Korea (87.91 )
Co announces that it will work with Korean energy company EnE System to build a 2-megawatt solar electric power plant in Jeonju. The plant, owned by Jeonju Solar Energy, is the first of its kind in Korea to be located on a landfill property.
WAG Walgreen: Sell-off in CVS shares and PBMs is unwarranted - Wachovia (40.16 ) -Update-
Wachovia notes that that WAG announced an EPS miss yesterday, based on higher expenses and lower reimbursement for some generic drugs. The co stated that reimbursement for simvastatin (generic Zocor) among other drugs, declined more than they expected causing a reduction in gross profit dollars per claim. The firm thinks the CVS sell-off is unwarranted, as the co reiterated guidance and has been discussing declines in generic reimbursement for at least 2-3 quarters. Firm thinks the impact on PBMs (ESRX, MHS) is either immaterial or possibly positive.
EBAY eBay: Not enough busy signals at Skype leads to write-down and mgmt changes - Cantor (39.66 )
Cantor is glad to see EBAY admit that it overpaid for Skype and that much-hyped synergies have not yet materialized to any large extent. While firm has have long recognized the value of a large, passionate user base and continue to see the long-term possibilities of “click-to-call” and/or “pay-per-call” functionality, they have struggled with the economics of the Skype transaction relative to the financial expectations for the business. Equally significant, firm has seen little practical synergy between Skype and eBay’s core, as most sellers with whom they interact have consistently stated that Skype is not even a consideration in their business roadmap, let alone a current driver of value.
NOV Natl Oilwell Varco downgraded to Add at Calyon- tgt $82 (73.40 )
Calyon downgrades NOV to Add from Buy with an $82 tgt saying they believe that the shares, currently trading at 14.4x their 2009 EPS estimate of $5.10, have insufficient upside to justify a buy rating. The firm says industry fundamentals remain robust and although they continue to believe that the co will show strong earnings growth in future years, much of the growth potential is now discounted in the share price.
JDAS JDA Software: Q3 no slam-dunk, but environment and pipeline should carry quarter - Brean Murray (21.55 )
Brean Murray says channel checks suggest JDAS is on track to execute on its 3Q07 software rev expectations, though they do not expect a 2Q07-like outperformance. Firm believes retail software demand in 3Q07 remained strong and that JDAS capitalized on it through sales of replenishment and allocation, merchandise planning, and space planning solutions. Firm further notes that JDAS went into 3Q07 with a fairly strong pipeline as the co continues to reap the benefits of its lead-generation team that was created late last year. Firm is also hearing favorable comments around 4Q07 pipeline levels. Lastly, firm notes JDAS remains fairly competitive in areas of planning and optimization.
PDLI PDL BioPharma: Decision to seek to sell co clears way to value; tgt raised to $27 - Broadpoint Capital (21.37 )
Broadpoint Capital is reiterating their Buy on PDLI’s decision to seek a buy of the co as a whole or of its key assets. Although PDL says it may still seek to sell its specialty pharmaceuticals business as part of the overall process, they think the focus on sale of at least all the important parts of the co removes valuation uncertainties associated with the previous intent to focus on new product development. Now the valuation should derive from the worth of the more concrete assets. Firm has estimated them as follows: the royalty stream at $16.10 per share, the specialty pharma business at $5.17, net cash at $0.07, net operating loss tax carryforwards at $3.60, and the R&D pipeline at $1.95. Note that their tgt rises to $27 from $24.
ThinkEquity discusses Solar Power conference; thinks JASO, TSL, YGE, SOLF are expanding aggressively, should prove to be attractive acquisition tgts ThinkEquity last week, the Solar Electric Power Association and the Solar Energy Industries Association held their fourth annual business-to-business solar conference and expo in Long Beach. The firm says it appears that U.S. demand for solar P.V. is strong. That said, they believe there is potential for over capacity at the cell and module level depending on how much of the announced polysilicon and upstream/downstream expansions come online in the next two years. They think one thing is clear, that is per-watt system prices will likely head lower when near-term component constraints get resolved. They think that today’s leaders, such as SPWR, Sharp, STP, Sanyo, Kyocera, REC, Q-Cells, Solar World, etc., are likely to dominate the landscape in the ensuing years. They also like a number of the smaller players, such as JASO, TSL, YGE, SOLF. They think these companies are expanding aggressively and should prove to be attractive acquisition targets during an industry consolidation, if and when the supply-demand imbalance tips in favor of the customers.
CEPH Cephalon: Initiation details (73.57 )
Friedman Billings initiated CEPH with a Market Perform and a $77 tgt. They see Provigil still as a solid growth driver, but note that upside potential is limited. They also see breakthrough pain drug Fentora as a concern, with prescriptions flattening as of late, not to mention headline risk related to the ongoing U.S. and Connecticut attorney general’s investigations.
HOLX Hologic: Initial FDA MQSA data was erroneous; unit placement number is still strong - Jefferies (62.59 )
Jefferies notes that the FDA released its Mammography Quality Standards Act statistics yesterday, erroneously reporting that a record 424 new FFDM units had been placed during the month of September. The firm has subsequently learned that the actual number of FFDM unit placements was 166, which still implies a strong FY4Q for HOLX. The firm continues to expect HOLX to report FY4Q results exceeding both their estimates and consensus expectations.
YHOO Yahoo!: Q3 preview - Credit Suisse (27.03 )
Credit Suisse expects YHOO to report generally inline Q3 results. While Panama continues to drive monetization improvements, it is being at least partially offset by a decline in share. While the display business remains challenging due to declining pageviews, particularly in some of Yahoo’s highest value areas like Finance, and pricing pressure from the advertising networks, the easier comp from last year’s disappointing Q3 should result in acceleration in the y/y growth rate.
GOOG Google: Q3 preview; quarter tracking ahead - Credit Suisse (582.54 )
Credit Suisse expects GOOG to report better than expected Q3 results on Oct 18. Based on the latest comScore data and firm’s discussions with advertisers they believe the Q3 revs are tracking up nearly double digits sequentially vs consensus at +7.1%. Firm currently forecasts rev and EPS of $2.93 bln (+7.6% q/q) and $3.84 (pro-forma) for the quarter, but based on this, believe that upside of $50 mln in revs and as much as $0.10 in EPS is possible barring any surprises with the expense part of the income statement.
GOOG Google: Q3 preview; quarter tracking ahead - Credit Suisse (582.54 )
Credit Suisse expects GOOG to report better than expected Q3 results on Oct 18. Based on the latest comScore data and firm’s discussions with advertisers they believe the Q3 revs are tracking up nearly double digits sequentially vs consensus at +7.1%. Firm currently forecasts rev and EPS of $2.93 bln (+7.6% q/q) and $3.84 (pro-forma) for the quarter, but based on this, believe that upside of $50 mln in revs and as much as $0.10 in EPS is possible barring any surprises with the expense part of the income statement.
PALM Palm: No major surprises to 1Q08 results - Credit Suisse (15.99 )
Credit Suisse continues to expect PALM to benefit from rapid smartphone market growth and international expansion; however, they expect increasing competition to continue to adversely affect Palm’s market share and operating margins. Following FQ1 results, firm is lowering their FY08E/FY09E (FYE 5/31) rev est to $1.47 bln/$1.62 bln from $1.53K/$1.74 bln and lowering their FY08E/FY09E pro forma EPS est (excl options) to $0.15/$0.21 from $0.25/$0.38. While firm would view the Centro as a meaningful improvement in PALM’s product portfolio in terms of form factor and price, and mgmt is clearly focused on increasing the variety and addressable prices within its product portfolio.
NDAQ NASDAQ to acquire Boston Stock Exchange and key exchange assets (38.56 ) -Update-
Co announced it has entered into a definitive agreement to acquire the Boston Stock Exchange, including the holding company, the Boston Equities Exchange, the Boston Stock Exchange Clearing Corporation, and BOX Regulation. Along with these businesses, NASDAQ will acquire an SRO license for trading both equities and options. NASDAQ’s acquisition of the B.S.E. Group is valued at approximately $61 mln. NASDAQ will not acquire an interest in the Boston Options Exchange from the B.S.E. However, a regulatory framework for the B.O.X. market will remain in place. NASDAQ, through BOXR, will operate the regulatory services provider to the B.O.X., which is an options trading facility of the B.S.E.. NASDAQ and B.O.X. are discussing a plan regarding the future regulatory structure for B.O.X. As previously noted, NASDAQ anticipates organically launching The NASDAQ Options Market, a price/time priority options market in December 2007, subject to SEC approval.
GM General Motors labor accord calls for more plant closings - NY Times (36.05 )
NY Times reports the co plans to close as many as 13 factories, four more than it previously announced, within the next four years if members of the United Automobile Workers union approve a tentative contract that union leaders have said will save jobs. An engine plant in Livonia, near Detroit, would close in 2010, according to the text of the contract, which U.A.W. members began to review over the weekend. Other plants vulnerable to being closed, according to the contract, are a small-engine plant in Parma, Ohio; a metal-stamping plant in Indianapolis; and a stamping plant in Flint, Mich.
SKX Skechers USA: September quarter could be a positive surprise; tgt raised to $27 - Broadpoint Capital (22.81 )
Broadpoint Capital believes SKX could report a positive earnings surprise for the Sept quarter, as expectations are low among Wall Street analysts. Firm notes the Sept quarter has historically been a strong sales quarter for SKX, as every year there is the back-to-school phenomena of moms buying their school-aged kids new shoes. Firm believes the risk to the Sept quarter is SKX’s recent Web site promotion of buy two pairs and get 15% off. This type of discounting could impact gross margins. Firm raises their tgt to $27 from $23.50.
Euro falls vs US dollar - Associated Press
A.P. reports that the 13-nation euro fell slightly against the U.S. dollar Tues, despite increasing speculation of another interest rate cut from Washington. In morning European trading the euro bought $1.4205, down from $1.4238 late in New York on Monday, a day when the currency hit a new all-time high of $1.4284. The dollar also gained on the British pound, which fell to $2.0391 from $2.0442 in New York, but dropped slightly against the Japanese yen to purchase 115.40 yen from 115.77 on Monday. The Australian and Canadian dollars continued to hold strong against the U.S. currency.
C Citigroup to acquire remaining stake in Nikko Cordial through share exchange (47.72 )
Co announced that it has reached an agreement with Nikko Cordial to acquire all issued shares of Nikko Cordial that Citi does not already own in exchange for shares of Citigroup. Under the terms of the agreement, Nikko Cordial’s minority shareholders will be entitled to receive C shares with an expected value at the time the exchange ratio is determined of Yen 1,700 per Nikko Cordial share.
MT Arcelor Mittal offers $542 mln for rest of Acindar - Reuters (80.08 )
Reuters reports the co said on Tuesday it intends to launch a cash offer to acquire the 34.7% of Argentina’s Acindar it does not currently own for $542 mln. ArcelorMittal said it planned to offer Acindar shareholders 5.75 pesos in cash, equivalent to $1.83 per Acindar share on Oct 1, a 19.5% premium to Acindar’s closing stock price on Monday. The potential transaction value would be 1.708 bln Argentine pesos ($542.4 mln) and the offer by subsidiary ArcelorMittal Spain should commence within four months, subject to regulatory approval. The offer would be conditional on the majority of shares not owned by ArcelorMittal being tendered and for ArcelorMital eventually to hold 90% of the outstanding Acindar shares.
ERTS Electronic Arts tgt raised to $64 at Nollenberger (58.22 )
Nollenberger would continue to buy shares of ERTS and are raising their tgt to $64 from $60. The new target is based on 27x FY09 EPS (up from 25x), plus $10 in cash per share. Firm is forecasting EPS of $2.00 per share in FY09, which they believe will wind up being conservative. ERTS, with its vast resources and new CEO John Riccitiello, likely has a number of options to boost revenue and profits next year. They believe ERTS will continue to use its enviable cash balance to both develop new IP and acquire studios with attractive content.
ATVI Activision tgt raised to $24 at Nollenberger (22.19 )
Nollenberger Capital would continue to buy shares of ATVI and are raising their tgt to $24 from $22. The new target is based on 27x FY09 EPS (up from 25x), plus $3 in cash per share. While it is fairly obvious by now that ATVI has two major hits in its pipeline this holiday season in Guitar Hero 3 and Call of Duty 4, firm still believes both titles will surpass expectations and leading to better than expected results and outlook from management.
TGIC Triad Guaranty: Adjusting ests and valuation ahead of Q3; tgt to $33 - FBR (20.07 )
Friedman Billings says given the uncertainty surrounding the mortgage insurance market and the co’s exposure to vulnerable mortgage services, they are lowering their earnings ests and tgt on TGIC. Firm also notes that TGIC is the most levered mortgage insurance name from a risk to capital perspective and, as a result, is less likely to take advantage of the industry’s strong insurance in force growth relative to peers. Firm is lowering their 2008 EPS est from $3.80 to $2.60 and their tgt from $33 to $23.
S Sprint Nextel presses for cheaper access to broadband lines - Washingtonpost.com (19.05 )
Washingtonpost.com reports that Sprint Nextel (S) is picking a fight with the country’s largest phone cos over the price it pays for access to their fastest networks. The industry skirmish has swelled into a political battle that will find an audience in front of members of Congress today. S, along with some competitors, says it has hundreds of millions of dollars riding on an upcoming FCC decision, which hinges on the unpredictable swing vote of Republican Commissioner Robert McDowell. The dispute centers on the high-capacity fiber-optic lines that provide huge volumes of phone and Internet connections to businesses. The largest telecom cos - AT&T (T), Verizon (VZ) and Qwest Communications (Q) - have networks that reach most buildings, and competitors such as XO Communications and Level 3 Communications (LVLT) often lease capacity on those lines to serve their customers. Wireless cos including S and T-Mobile also use the capacity to connect calls to their cellphone towers. But these competitors, led by S, say the giants charge too much for access to the high-capacity lines and want the FCC to more tightly regulate the prices. S says its access fees have risen sharply in recent years. T, VZ and argue that their prices are reasonable and that they should not be regulated in markets that have sufficient competition. Now all eyes are on McDowell, whose tiebreaking vote could shift the balance of this $16 bln mkt. McDowell is a former lobbyist for Comptel, a group that represents smaller competitors, and some observers expect him to vote in favor of tightening price regulations. In an interview yesterday, McDowell acknowledged the difficulties of determining the extent of competition in certain markets. “A lot of the fundamental facts are at loggerheads,” he said, noting that more detailed information might be needed. “It makes resolving this issue very challenging.”
Bond Watch: Slumping into Session
The market is still suffering from a re-birth of risky asset-love. Equities shot up globally overnight & bonds sold off as investors apparently see the worst of the dark clouds of Aug’s credit pinch as having blown over. More storms may lie ahead but the markets are, nevertheless, taking this opportunity to correct some of the worst expectations. The 2-10-yr yield spread is in at 53.7 (-0.2) as steepeners get unwound on diminished expectations of rate cuts. Bond prices in the EuroZone & Japan were hit by asset re-allocation. Treasuries have taken a turn for the worse & last week’s positive momentum is on the ropes as prices re-test support levels. Technicals will continue to guide trade, in this case potentially lower should downward momentum gather speed. Data will only be of passing interest as will Fed-speak. Another drop-off in pending home sales is expected, once again it’ll be a matter of degree that gets any attention. Dallas Fed pres Fisher talks about technology at 13. The buck is better & euro has backed off the recent highs holding back under 1.42 as officials worry over volatility, the yen has also slipped some. Gold is off on the better buck now 732.25 (-14.95). Crude oil is holding under 80 now 79.20 (-1.04). Data has pending home sale (10). The euro is at 1.4161 & the yen is at 115.8000 while the 10-yr is -05/32nds yielding 4.567%.
Buyers: Source Interlink Companies (SORC 3.50) Director bought 7,500 shares at $3.54… Keryx Biopharma (KERX 10.12) Director bought 3K shares at $10.06… Legacy Reserves LP (LGCY 21.55) President and CFO bought 4K shares at $22.00… Trimeris (TRMS 7.69) 10% Owner HealthCor Mgmt bought 179,336 shares at $7.59… Smart Balance (SMBL 12.17) 10% Owner OSS Capital Mgmt bought 90K shares at $12.21… Emerson Radio (MSN 2.2
10% Owner Grande International Holdings bought 1,853,882 shares at $3.92… Sport Supply Group (RBI 9.03) 10% Owner Carlson Capital bought 28,912 shares at $8.99… CPI Group (CPY 39.75) 10% Owner Starboard Value & Opportunity Master Fund bought 36K shares at $38.60…Entertainment Distribution (EDCI 1.16) 10% Owner Chapman Capital bought 102,800 shares at $1.29… Grubb & Ellis Realty Advisors (GAV 5.90) 10% Owner D.B. Zwirn & Co. bought 150,100 shares at $5.80. Sellers: ICAgen (ICGN 1.90) 10% Owner Walker Smith Capital sold 1.5 mln shares at $1.97… Leucadia National (LUK 49.16) Officer sold 20K shares at $48.30… Treehouse Foods (THS 28.16) Director sold 19,500 shares at $27.82… Toreador Resources (TRGL 11.69) Director sold 10K shares at $11.15… Spectrum Control (SPEC 15.00) Officer/Director sold 20K shares at $14.64… Polo Ralph Lauren (RL 78.03) Chairman R. Lauren sold 17,514 shares at $78.14… NVIDIA (NVDA 37.77) Director sold 195,778 shares at $36.60… Cytomedix (GTF 5.05) Director sold 40K shares at $3.90… China Automotive Systems (CAAS 8.54) Officer sold 40K shares at $9.51… Sequenom (SQNM 7.99) 10% Owner ComVest Group Holdings sold 800K shares at $6.70… Steel Partners discloses 8.4% stake in Enpro Industries (NPO 40.89) on SC 13D/A, down from 10.7%.
PBG Pepsi Bottling beats by $0.10, reports revs in-line; guides FY07 EPS above consensus (37.19 )
Reports Q3 (Aug) earnings of $0.99 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.10 better than the Reuters Estimates consensus of $0.89; revenues rose 7.8% year/year to $3.73 bln vs the $3.7 bln consensus. Co issues upside guidance for FY07, sees EPS of $2.15-2.18, excluding non-recurring items, compared to previous guidance of $2.02-2.07, vs. $2.07 consensus. CEO says, said, “In the third quarter, we delivered record sales and comparable operating income driven by outstanding performance in the U.S. and Canada and in Europe, led by Russia. Our strong top-line growth, gross profit per case improvement and disciplined cost management led to solid profit and cash flow increases.”
Upgrades: UBS upgrades Medicines Co (MDCO 18.40) to Buy from Sell… Citigroup upgrades Forest Labs (FRX 37.10) to Hold from Sell… JP Morgan upgrades UBS (UBS 54.94) to Neutral from Underweight… Morgan Stanley upgrades UBS (UBS 54.94) to Equal-weight from Underweight. Downgrades: UBS downgrades NAVTEQ (NVT 76.45) to Neutral from Buy. Miscellaneous: Citigroup initiates Acadia Pharma (ACAD 15.56) with a Hold and a $19 tgt… Friedman Billings initiates Cypress Bioscience (CYPB 14.23) with an Outperform and a $22 tgt saying the co’s lead product is milnacipran, which is in Phase III studies for fibromyalgia, a U.S. market that could be as large as $7 billion… Friedman Billings initiates Cephalon (CEPH 73.57) with a Market Perform and a$77 tgt saying the prospects for near-term upside on the top line are limited… Friedman Billings initiates Elan Corp (ELN 21.2
with an Underperform and a $13 tgt saying Elan’s partner, Biogen (BIIB) has said that it expects 100,000 patients to be on Tysabri by the end of 2010, but with monthly sales data showing flattening trends, they question this estimate… Lehman reinitiates Statoil (STO 34.1
with an Overweight.
CBH Commerce Bancorp: TD Bank Financial Group to acquire Commerce Bancorp (39.74 )
TD Bank Financial Group (TD) and CBH announce that they have signed a definitive agreement for TD to acquire CBH in a 75% stock and 25% cash transaction valued at US$8.5 bln… Under the agreement, Commerce shareholders will receive 0.4142 shares of a TD common share and US$10.50 in cash in exchange for each common share of Commerce Bancorp Inc. The consideration was negotiated on the basis of US$42.00 per share value for Commerce Bank. The transaction value based on the October 1, 2007 closing price of TD common shares is $42.37… On a GAAP basis, the transaction is expected to be 28 cents dilutive in fiscal 2008 and 22 cents dilutive in 2009 to TD’s earnings, and 10 cents dilutive in 2008 and flat in 2009 on an adjusted basis.
Upgrades: BofA upgrades ProLogis (PLD 67.00) to Buy from Neutral and raises their tgt to $76 from $70, as they have become more bullish on drivers behind demand for industrial space linked to the global supply chain and believe PLD is uniquely positioned to benefit from these trends with over 45% of total assets located outside N. America… Wachovia upgrades PDL BioPharma (PDLI 21.37) to Outperform from Market Perform, following the announcement the co will actively seek a sale of the entire co or its key assets and that its chief executive has stepped down… Deutsche Bank upgrades NAVTEQ (NVT 76.45) to Hold from Sell and raises their tgt to $78 from $30, following the announcement Nokia will acquire the co for $8.1 bln. Downgrades: BofA downgrades Brandywine Realty Trust (BDN 25.60) to Neutral from Buy and lowers their tgt to $27 from $35, as they believe further rep-positioning out of slower growth markets may be more dilutive than planned, given the greater potential for an upward shift in cap rates, see a slower earnings growth profile and question the viability of the development pipeline… Baird downgrades Syntax-Brillian (BRLC 4.06) to Neutral from Outperform and lowers their tgt to $4 from $12, based on a potential cash tightness situation late this year in their view, due to Syntax-Brillian’s continued intensity in working capital requirements during the seasonally strong December quarter compounded by higher TFT LCD panel prices… Deutsche Bank downgrades CBS (CBS 31.06) to Hold from Buy and lowers their tgt to $33 from $35, as soft ratings trends and poor local ad growth are likely to offset much of the political ad, stronger scatter pricing and retrans upside the firm had expected… Merrill Lynch downgrades Walgreen (WAG 40.16) to Neutral from Buy.
Upgrades: BofA upgrades AMB Property (AMB 61.44) to Buy from Neutral and raises their tgt to $67 from $63, as they have become more bullish on AMB’s value creation pipeline following its investor day event and as a result of our in-depth research on global industrial fundamentals…Downgrades: JMP Securities downgrades Nokia (NOK 37.96) to Market Perform from Outperform, following the co’s definitive agreement to acquire NAVTEQ and believe there is a greater than 50% chance the deal will close at the proposed offering price of $78… BofA downgrades Maguire Properties (MPG 27.33) to Sell from Neutral and lowers their tgt to $22 from $33, as they believe MPG will likely fall short of its $2 bln disposition target, leverage levels will continue to hover in the 70% area and portfolio occupancy levels will decline due to increased potential for further job losses in the mortgage and finance sectors… BofA downgrades SL Green Realty (SLG 118.6
to Neutral from Buy and lowers their tgt to $119 from $155, as they believe negative sentiment regarding the potential for a slowdown in NYC office fundamentals and layoffs in the financial services sector will prevent shares from moving fundamentally higher over the next year… Merriman downgrades Bankrate (RATE 47.06) to Neutral from Buy, based on valuation and concerns with the macro headwinds in the mortgage category, which they believe limit the co’s upside potential. Miscellaneous:Cantor Fitzgerald initiates Veraz Networks (VRAZ 7.22) with a Buy and sets a $9 tgt, based on its ability capitalize on the growth in the media gateway market.
Asian stocks rise as credit concerns ease; Mitsubishi UFJ gains - Bloomberg.com
Bloomberg.com reports Asian stocks rose, led by Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group and Samsung Electronics, after former U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan and Citigroup suggested credit-market losses will abate… Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average closed above 17,000 for the first time in more than seven weeks and benchmarks in Australia, Indonesia and Singapore rose to records. Stock markets in China and India were shut for holidays.
U.K. stocks advance, paced by Tesco, ITV; Taylor Wimpey gains - Bloomberg.com
Bloomberg.com reports U.K. stocks climbed for a second day, paced by Tesco Plc after Britain’s largest retailer posted earnings that beat analysts’ estimates… The FTSE 100 Index gained 51.7, or 0.8%, to 6557.9 at 8:42 a.m. in London. The FTSE All-Share Index rose 0.9% to 3364.54. Ireland’s ISEQ Index jumped 2.1% to 8150.68.
F UAW faces resistance to deals at Ford, Chrysler - WSJ (8.23 )
The Wall Street Journal reports UAW President Ron Gettelfinger’s hopes for efficiently achieving new national contracts at Ford (F) and Chrysler LLC could hit trouble. Union negotiators representing workers at Chrysler have signaled reluctance to tacitly approve an agreement that mirrors the tentative deal forged with GM (GM) last week, according to people familiar with the negotiations. At the same time, management officials at Ford and Chrysler have their own issues with such an agreement, said people familiar with those talks. The problems don’t necessarily imperil the prospects of reaching similar deals to the one reached last week with GM, which agreed to a wage and benefits restructuring as well as a commitment to invest in the U.S. UAW officials on the Chrysler bargaining team met Sunday to discuss the GM deal, and a majority of members decided against supporting the agreement because of a provision for lower wages and benefits for newly hired workers, said people familiar with the matter. These officials are also skittish about the UAW’s willingness to set up a new trust to absorb tens of billions of dollars of retiree health-care liabilities, these people said.
Cramer’s ‘Mad Money’ Recap: Lightning Round cont. - TheStreet.com
Cramer was bearish on Jones Soda (JSDA), Melco PBL Entertainment (MPEL), China Precision Steel (CPSL), Circuit City (CC), Invesco (IVZ), Level 3 Communications (LVLT), Tellabs (TLAB), Archer Daniels Midland (ADM), Lance (LNCE) and Red Hat (RHT).
‘Mad Money’ Recap: Lightning Round - TheStreet.com
Cramer was bullish on Coca-Cola (KO), PepsiCo (PEP), Investools (SWIM), RF Micro Devices (RFMD), Skyworks Solutions (SWKS), Best Buy (BBY), T. Rowe Price (TROW), Bunge (BG), Syngenta (SYT), Mosaic (MOS), Monsanto (MON), Under Armour (UA), Aircastle (AYR), Kraft Foods (KFT) and Oracle (ORCL).
Cramer’s ‘Mad Money’ Recap - TheStreet.com
On Monday’s edition, Jim recommends Ford (F), which is next to negotiate with the UAW, and says CEO Alan Mulally will turn those negotiations into money for shareholders. With the GM (GM) blueprint, he said it should be easy for Ford to win the UAW agreement. Further, Cramer expects after the deal that there will be “massively lower” health care costs at Ford. Another pin-action play off the GM deal that Cramer believes should break out of its range and go higher is American Axle (AXL). But in early 2008, Axle’s contract with the UAW comes to an end, and that, he said, will send the co back to the negotiating table. Cramer expects Axle to push the union to get a deal similar to GM’s, and the stock will “break out at least six points to the upside” when that happens next year. Finally, he suggests Dolan Media (DM) as a play directly on mortgage defaults.
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