Trading for the Masses

09:48 Monolithic Power (MPWR) and ON Semi (ONNN) reinitiated before the open at Wedbush

Before the open, Wedbush reinitiated MPWR and maintained their Strong Buy rating, but lowered their tgt to $22 from $28. Firm also reinitiated ONNN and maintained their Buy rating, and lowered thier tgt to $9 from $13.
09:47 MSCC Microsemi: Honeywell CEO recaps analyst day, India and China continue to grow and expand; positive for MSCC - Morgan Keegan (22.09 -0.56) -Update-

Morgan Keegan notes that yesterday morning, Honeywell’s (HON) CEO was on CNBC recapping their analyst day. They note the CEO indicated that they currently have a 6 yr backlog for plane parts. HON’s CEO also mentioned that as India and China continue to grow and expand, that they could contribute up to $5 bln dollars in parts alone. They say Eastern Europe is expected to be a significant contributor as they begin to refresh and expand their current air fleet. Over the next several yrs, they say China has plans to build 50 new airports and retro fit most of their air fleet. The firm views this as positive for MSCC who derives roughly 20% from commercial/air and 32% from defense. They feel that shares of MSCC are attractive trading at a current valuation of 14.0x their Sept 2009 estimate $1.62.
09:46 JEF Jefferies Group pops to session highs; strength attributed to takeover rumor (19.04 +0.42) -Update-

09:46 GOOG Google vacillating near yesterday’s gap down high at 466.47 after minor penetration (466.53 +2.34) -Update- -Technical-

09:44 MA MasterCard slides lower off the open as it comes into its Feb low near 190.00 (191.04 -4.79) -Technical-

09:42 TECHX Seeing Relative Strength in Housing as the XHB rebounds into positive territory -Update- -Technical-

PHM, KBH, HOV, CTX, TOL, LEN, MTH, SPF, DHI, RYL, BZH.
09:42 GOOG Google pushes to early morning highs as it comes into yesterday’s gap down high near 466.47 (465.75 +1.19) -Technical-

09:42 ECONX Reminder: January New Home Sales due out in about 18 min at 10:00ET

09:41 GPS Gap Inc: Upward potential for margins and sales could propel company to exceed EPS estimate - C.L. King (20.21 -0.06)

C.L. King notes that GPS reports 4Q07 earnings on Thursday, Feb 28, after the market close. Firm anticipates EPS of $0.35 vs. consensus of $0.34, and guidance of $0.33-$0.35. Firm projects FY08 comps will be up 1% vs. a four-year cumulative comp store sales decline of 16%. Firm expects traffic declines to moderate and turn positive at some point during the year, and continues to believe the predominance of the traffic declines are markdown customers making less frequent store visits as markdown inventory levels continue to decline. Also, firm continues to believe the upward potential for margins and sales could propel the stock to outperform their EPS estimates and mgmt guidance when issued for FY08.
09:39 CEF Central Fund of Canada reported Q1 in 6-K last night, reported EPS of $1.63 vs $0.67 in yr ago period; reports income up 176% yr/yr to $205.4 mln (13.34 -0.2

09:39 TECHX Sector Watch -Update- -Technical-

Modestly negative start for the market with Finance XLF, Regional Bank HOLDRs RKH, Transports TRAN, Materials XLB, Airline XAL, Clean Energy PBW, Chemical CEX pacing the way. Seeing strength in Gold/Silver XAU (GLD +1.2%, GDX +1.5%).
09:39 COMDX Morning Commodities Summary

Energy: The Dept. of Energy will release its weekly inventory stats at 10:30ET, where crude is expected to show a build of 2.7 mln barrels (which would be its 7th consecutive week of rising inventories), distillate is expected to show a draw of 2.2 mln and gasoline is expected to show a build of 375K. Overnight, Apr crude oil ($100.95 +0.07) pushed to a fresh all-time high of $102.08 before pulling back. Mar natural gas ($9.127 -0.079) expires today… Metals: Apr gold ($962.70 +13.80) surged to a new all-time high of $967.70 overnight as the dollar traded to a new all-time low of $1.5088 vs. the euro… Ag: The CBOT expanded wheat’s trading limit for the second straight day, increasing it to $1.35 from 90 cents after wheat rallied it daily limit yesterday. The exchange did the same thing before Tuesday’s session, raising the limit to 90 cents from 60 cents after wheat finished limit up on Monday as well. The move hasn’t helped May wheat ($10.795 -1.350) this morning, however, as it saw aggressive profit-taking overnight and is trading down its new trading limit in electronic trade.
09:36 COT Cott upgraded before the open to Outperform from Sector Perform at CIBC (2.43 -0.11)

09:35 BAGL Einstein Noah: Recommend purchase of BAGL shares ahead of this afternoon’s 4Q07 earnings conference call - Cowen (15.97 +0.36) -Update-

Cowen recommends purchase of BAGL shares ahead of this afternoon’s 4Q07 earnings conference call as they suspect the recent pullback due to fears of (a) a weak consumer and (b) higher wheat prices has been vastly overdone. They remain confident in their unchanged 2008 EPS estimate of $1.00 and continue to believe that BAGL shares can outperform the market by over +25% over the next 12 months.
09:33 BWP Boardwalk Pipeline downgraded before the open to Market Perform from Outperform at Morgan Keegan (27.26 -1.2

09:32 ANF Abercrombie: International equals next wave of growth - Bear Stearns (80.83 -0.1

Bear Stearns says retailers are running out of growth in a mature U.S. apparel market and new concepts are failing. As a result, international expansion is the only other viable growth option and not easy. Firm believes ANF has the brand strength and mgmt discipline to successfully penetrate international markets. Firm raised their international sales est by 50% based on stronger than expected sales trends in London, Canada and 5th Avenue locations. Firm’s detailed analysis by continent shows international markets could account for nearly 25% of co sales in five years. Firm sees ANF and Hollister growth potential in at least 15 major cities in Europe and Asia, as well as continued expansion in Canada.
09:32 ABK AMBAC Fincl: Dinallo says we are in the 8th inning of possible Ambac rescue - Bloomberg (11.87 -0.32)

09:31 AMZN Amazon.com slides lower off the open as it probes the 70.00 level just above its 4-day range low of 69.37 (70.10 -1.60) -Technical-

09:31 FNM Fannie Mae gaps down below its Nov low at 26.38 to set a new 52-wk low (25.50 -1.51) -Update- -Technical-

09:30 PRC Petro Resources: James Denny joins as Chief Operating Officer (1.69 -0.01)

09:30 LLNW Limelight Networks takeover update, no MSFT, yes Level 3 - Silicon Alley Insider (6.78 )

Silicon Alley Insider reports it has been all quiet on the co front since the website heard last month that MSFT wanted to acquire the co. Curious about the latest on this, the website checked in with a CDN industry source, and here’s what the website got: After connecting some dots, the source believes that the Microsoft takeover possibility is less likely than it was a month ago–before Microsoft made its play for YHOO. Specifically, the source hears that Limelight has begun investigating business development and/or M&A deals that wouldn’t make sense if it were about to be acquired by Microsoft. Although concluding that Limelight-Microsoft talks are off on the basis of this is obviously speculative, the theory makes sense in light of recent developments: If Microsoft buys Yahoo, the strategic rationale for buying Limelight–turbocharging its global cloud-computing infrastructure and expertise–would go away. Meanwhile, the source says that another Limelight takeover deal makes a lot more sense and speculates that it might happen sooner rather than later. Specifically, the source thinks Level 3 (LVLT) might buy Limelight.
09:30 RGR Sturm Ruger reports Y07 EPS of $0.46 vs $0.39 single analyst estimate; reports revs down 7% yr/yr to $156.5 mln vs $166.6 mln single estimate (9.12 )

09:28 MCD McDonald’s: Breakfast/snack remain recession resistant; raising 1Q08 and FY outlook; rasing Feb U.S. comp est - Cowen (56.45 )

Cowen recommends purchase of MCD shares as they suspect rising underlying USA sales strength. In fact, today firm is 1) increasing their Feb U.S. comp est by +200bp to +8.5%E (from +6.5%E and vs. Jan’s +1.9%A; Dec’s +0.0%A: inclusive of a +4% calendar shift (w/2008’s extra leap-year day); and, 2) increasing their 1Q08 and 2008 EPS ests (via taking their 08 US comp est to +3.0%E from +2.5%E) by +$0.01 and +$0.03 to $0.69E and $3.23 from $0.68 and $3.20 (vs. Consensus’ $0.67E and 3.18E), respectively. Firm continues to believe that MCD shares can outperform the market by over +10% over the next 12 months.
09:22 CRYP CryptoLogic reaffirms Q4 guidance; appoints new CEO (17.74 )

Co reaffirms guidance for Q4 (Dec), co say that it will ‘meet or exceed’ revs of $17.5-18.5 vs. $18.62 mln First Call consensus. Also announces the appointment of Brian Hadfield as the company’s President and CEO.
09:22 KMP Kinder Morgan Prtnrs prices a 5 mln share common unit offering raising approx $282 mln in net proceeds (58.58 )

09:20 TECHX Market View: Support and Resistance -Technical-

The market is looking south at the start in the wake of the three day run to the vicinity of 50 day averages for several indices. For a look at the daily charts and the short term outlook go to The Technical Take.
09:20 COMDX E.I.A Statistics

Petroleum inventory data is due out today at 10:30 E.T. According to the Bloomberg survey, analysts believe that crude oil inventories had a build of 2700K during the week ending Feb 22 (last year crude saw a build of 1421K); expectations range from a build of 300K barrels to a build of 3600K barrels (15 out of 15 analysts are expecting a build); prior 4 week avg is a build of 3969K… Analysts believe distillate fuel inventories had a draw of 2200K (last year distillates saw a draw of 3787K); expectations range from a draw of 3250K to a build of 1800K; (15 out of 16 analysts expect a draw); prior 4 week avg is a draw of 1504K barrels… Analysts believe gasoline inventories had a build of 375K (last year gas saw a draw of 1940K); expectations range from a draw of 1300K to a build of 2000K (9 out of 16 analysts are expecting a build, with 2 analysts at unchanged); prior 4 week avg is a build of 2481K barrels.
09:19 SAFM Sanderson Farms upgraded to Equal Weight at boutique firm (36.75 )

09:18 TSL Trina Solar: Strong Q4 report should help expand P/E; see 50%+ upside vs. the market in 12 months - Cowen (34.32 ) -Update-

Cowen notes that TSL is trading near the low end of comparables (on St. P/E), and they believe the valuation likely reflects: confusion about expenses (due to poorly communicated Q3 results and lack of Q4 guidance), concerns about silicon supply and cost, and expectations of potential dilution to finance a polysilicon plant. The firm expects Q4 net income about 20% above the Street. They believe management will provide greater transparency and more granular 2008 guidance. While silicon supply remains a constraint, they believe increased confidence should expand the P/E and see 50%+ upside vs. the market in 12 months.
09:18 BWS Brown Shoe initiated with an Accumulate at CL King-tgt $20 (16.23 )

09:16 CBI CB&I awarded contract in excess of $130 mln for Yarwun Alumina Refinery upgrade (46.47 ) -Update-

Co announces it has been awarded a contract valued in excess of $130 mln by Rio Tinto Alcan for the design and construction of storage tanks and associated works for the expansion of the Yarwun Alumina Refinery. CBI’s scope of work includes the engineering, fabrication, preassembly, and installation of numerous tanks and associated mechanical equipment, structural steel, piping, and insulation.
09:16 WRAPX Pre-market Summary

Following yesterday’s broad-based gains, the mkt’s third straight winning session, futures indicate a modestly lower open on profit-taking and following weaker than expected Durable Good Orders data. Orders in Jan fell a larger than expected 5.3% (consensus -4.0%), while last month’s gain was revised lower for a second time to 4.4% (previously 5.0%). Investors are also showing some hesitation ahead Fed Chairman Bernanke’s semi-annual testimony before the House Financial Services Committee on monetary policy, which begins at 10:00ET. Dow futures are currently -62; Nasdaq futures are currently -16.3; S&P futures are currently -9. For technical levels of interest, click here… The Bond mkt is surging this morning ahead of Bernanke’s testimony following weak economic data. Besides the Durable Goods Orders, MBA Mortgage Applications fell sharply for the second straight week (-19.2% vs the prior week’s -22.6%). The 10-yr is currently +14/32 to 3.804%… In Commodities, the Dept. of Energy will release its weekly inventory stats at 10:30ET, where crude is expected to show a build of 2.7 mln barrels, which would be its 7th consecutive week of rising inventories. Overnight, Apr crude oil ($100.62 -0.26) pushed to a fresh all-time high of $102.08. The CBOT expanded wheat’s trading limit for the second straight day, increasing it to $1.35 from 90 cents after wheat rallied it daily limit yesterday. The exchange did the same thing before Tuesday’s session, raising the limit to 90 cents from 60 cents after wheat finished limit up on Monday as well. The move hasn’t helped May wheat ($10.795 -1.350) this morning, however, as it saw aggressive profit-taking overnight and is trading down its new trading limit of $1.35 in electronic trade… In Europe, mkts were lower by mid-day as Britain’s biggest mortgage lender HBOS posted disappointing results, dragging down other financials and offsetting gains in miners and oil cos. FTSE is currently -1.3%; DAX is currently -1.2%; CAC is currently -1.3%. In Asia, mkts surged as a rally in commodities and better than expected results at Standard Chartered stoked optimism earnings will endure a global slowdown. Nikkei closed +1.5%; Hang Seng closed +3.2%; Shanghai Composite closed +2.3%… Notable pre-market Calls include Upgrades: XLNX at UBS; Downgrades: ABX at Credit Suisse, CHK, EOG, KWK and SWN at Citi, JASO, SOLF, TSL and YGE at BofA… On the Earnings calendar, 34 cos are confirmed to report today after the close, though none are expected to be market-moving releases… On the Economic calendar, Jan New Home Sales (consensus 600K; prior 604K) will be released at 10:00ET.
09:16 WIRES On The Wires

Blue Square-Israel (BSI) announces that it was served today with a claim and a request for approval as a class action, in which the co is being sued together with other defendants, including companies involved in the marketing of eggs and also other food marketing chains… Winn-Dixie Stores (WINN) announces plans to sell the two dairies it operates -one in Plant City, Fla. and the second in Hammond, La.- to Southeast Milk.
09:15 ECONX Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke’s Testimony Preview

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke testifies before the House Financial Services Committee today at 10am ET as part of the semi-annual review of monetary policy and the economy. The testimony will include an explanation regarding the large easing in January, the state of the economy and expectations for economic growth and the inflation outlook. We expect Bernanke to hold to the boilerplate outlook that the economy will avoid recession despite stronger risks. However, the risk of recession needs to be stated. The confidence the Fed Chair shows may provide the lead for the equity markets. Confirming the presumption that the Fed will continue to respond to weak economic data has become more questioned as inflation pressures have reaccelerated. There’s plenty of room for market reaction if Bernanke tries to over-explain the Fed’s situation. While the economy sits on the edge of recession, inflation pressures continue to mount given strong global demand. The Fed has rationalized the focus on growth given the lagging nature of inflation. While the markets remain wary of continued inflationary pressures, we bet Congress would be content hearing of the expected lift in the second half tied to the large fiscal policy stimulus. The outlook will be hazy, just as policy direction has been during Bernanke’s effort to increase transparency. We expect the Fed Chair will clarify the key economic uncertainties and outline an improved outlook at mid-year as the monetary and fiscal stimulus gives the economy a jolt. The economic and policy outlook until mid-year, however, continues to weigh heavily on market participants. Bernanke’s responses will leave the near-term outlook for policy unclear, though, as we suspect he will again invoke the view that the Fed will be dependent on the incoming data. The Committee is likely to ask about the probability of recession, and continued inflation pressures, or even the Fed’s reduced ability to stimulate growth, which would be a backhanded compliment for the generous fiscal package– Briefing.com Chief Economist Tim Rogers.
09:15 SIGM Sigma Designs announces share repurchase program of up to 2 mln shares (30.61 )

“We believe a repurchase program is an attractive use of our cash and underscores our belief in the long-term value of our stock as well as our commitment to deliver shareholder value.”
09:15 S&P futures vs fair value: -8.3. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -15.0.
09:14 WDC Western Digital issues upside guidance for Q3 (33.84 )

Co issues upside guidance for Q3 (Mar), sees EPS of $1.05-1.11 vs. $0.88 First Call consensus; sees Q3 (Mar) revs of $2.0-2.075 bln vs. $1.98 bln consensus. Co also sees gross margin of approximately 22% (up from 15.8% a year ago).
09:14 CSTR Coinstar: Redbox announces 1,800 kiosk rollout with Walgreens; second major chain rollout announced this month - Merriman (30.45 )

Merriman says Redbox announced an agreement with Walgreens (WAG) to install an additional 1,800 kiosks during 2008 and 2009. This adds to the kiosks that are already installed at roughly 250 WAG locations. Given that WAG operates almost 6,200 locations throughout the U.S., firm believes the expansion opportunity for Redbox with them is far from complete. Firm now have strong visibility into at least 4,500 kiosks to be installed between 2008 and 2009 — or more than 50% of their estimate of 8,400 kiosks to be installed during 2008 and 2009 combined. Firm would not be surprised if WMT and WAG install more than what has been already announced over the next two years.
09:10 BP BP CEO expects industry cost escalation to continue - DJ (67.38 ) -Update-

09:09 WIRES Newspaper Notable Mentions

WSJ: TV sales are expected to decelerate this year, even though millions of households haven’t yet switched from bulky, cathode-ray-tube TVs to sets with improved picture technology and, typically, thinner profiles. Much of the expected slowdown is a hangover from 2006, when excess supply heading into the holidays triggered sharp price cuts in digital TVs that were too good to pass up for many Americans, pulling sales forward… NY Times: Members of two writers’ unions ratified a three-year contract with Hollywood’s movie and television production companies on Monday, ending the entertainment industry’s most difficult labor negotiation in 20 years… DJ: Investment Corp. of Dubai said that it has made an offer for Spain’s Inmobiliaria Colonial, valuing the real estate co at EUR2.98 bln. For Colonial, the bid was considered as the last potential lifeline left for a co that has become crippled both by a soaring EUR8.6 bln debt and by the high leverage of the co itself… DigiTimes: In an attempt to stabilize the price of NAND flash, Samsung Electronics is said to grow its finished memory card shipments to help digest capacity and reduce supply to the spot market, according to sources at memory module makers in Taiwan.
09:09 WDC guides above consensus for Q3 in 8-K

09:08 OIIM O2Micro reinitiated with a Hold from a Buy at Wedbush- tgt $10 (8.64 )

09:07 MSCC Microsemi reinitiated with a Buy from a Strong Buy at Wedbush (22.65 )

09:07 WIRES On The Wires

Metalline Mining (MMG) announces selected drill hole results representative of the silver rich Polymetallic Manto mineralization north of the Sierra Mojada fault. Diamond drill hole D1061212, in the Plaza Rica area of the San Salvador mine, assayed an average of 129 grams silver per tonne and 3.8% zinc over an interval of 54 meters from 15 to 69 meters depth in the hole… Overstock.com (OSTK) announces that members of its group, Club O, will now receive free shipping in the continental US… General Physics , a subsidiary of GP Strategies (GPX), has been awarded a Homeland Security Exercise Program contract by the State of Tennessee, Department of Safety, Office of Homeland Security. G.P. values the contract at up to $1.24 mln if all exercises are conducted as scheduled… Compuware (CPWR) announces that its Covisint subsidiary has entered into an agreement to work with Microsoft HealthVault, Microsoft’s personal health technology platform.
09:05 SUPG SuperGen: Correction (2.70 ) -Update-

In our 7:22 comment we reported SUPG was downgraded to Neutral from Negative, when infact SUPG was upgraded to Neutral from Negative, our previous comment has been changed.
09:03 GBX Greenbrier Comp downgraded to to Neutral from Buy at Longbow (28.81 )

09:01 A sentiment/valuation disconnect pair trade (GOOG/AMZN) - AmTech

AmTech says GOOG shares have been hammered in the previous two sessions, provoked by third-party data suggesting growth in paid-click volume has slowed materially. The underlying fundamental concern is that a soft U.S. consumer is causing slow-down in eCommerce activity. While they disagree with the validity of comScore data, it seems a glaring disconnect that this concern has not also taken down shares of AMZN. Firm suggests that investors consider a long GOOG, short AMZN pairs trade to take advantage of this disconnect. If a softening U.S. consumer is causing a slow-down in the paid search market, online retail and AMZN would be hit harder than GOOG with more direct consumer exposure — in a tough environment online retailers may compete harder for fewer consumer dollars and spend more on search marketing per unit of rev.
09:01 ALC Assisted Living Concepts reports EPS in-line, misses on revs (5.97 )

Reports Q4 (Dec) earnings of $0.06 per share, excluding non-recurring items, in-line with the First Call consensus of $0.06; revenues fell 3.5% year/year to $56.5 mln vs the $57.2 mln consensus.
09:01 IBM IBM: Announces new Z10 mainframe, $15 bln stock buyback; rasing EPS ests - AmTech (114.38 )

AmTech says yesterday IBM made two important announcements: 1) its new Z10 Mainframe and 2) a $15 bln stock buyback. They view the new Z10 mainframe as a positive and the more significant news. The reason being they believe that its z-series high-end server line will now serve as a tailwind as opposed to a headwind as it has been over the past few quarters. Firm ests that the Z10 will have a positive impact on about 15-20% of its business (and perhaps as high as 25%) which includes associated software, services, and financing. For 2008, they are now modeling $8.25 in EPS, up from $8.20 (consensus at $8.22) and leaving rev essentially unchanged at $105 bln. For 2009, firm is now at $9.40, up from $9.35 (consensus at $9.21).
09:01 KOOL Thermogenesis subsidiary Vantus announces stem cell agreement with UC Davis Center for equine health (1.76 )

Co announces that its wholly-owned subsidiary, Vantus, has signed a formal agreement with the UC Davis School of Veterinary Medicine’s Center for Equine Health and its Stem Cell Regenerative Medicine Group. Under the agreement, the two organizations will conduct joint research and development of methods to enhance the collecting, processing and storing of stem cells from equine cord blood, bone marrow and placental tissue.
09:00 ADSK Autodesk: Guidance will likely pressure shares - AmTech (39.10 ) -Update-

AmTech says weak growth in the Americas, higher operating expenses, and lower EPS guidance will likely overshadow strong new seat and international demand and continued 25% maintenance growth at ADSK. The weak macro environment and execution challenges were cited for the 1% Americas growth. Higher sales commissions negatively impacted Q408 EPS and increased operational investments during 1H2009 negatively impacted EPS guidance. Firm believes the co’s ability to generate $650-700 mln in free cash flow per year, coupled with growth and contribution from high-margin recurring maintenance rev and continued share buybacks, could provide some level of downside support.
09:00 DWA Dreamworks Animation: Toshiba “blood” money props up DWA earnings…for now - Pali Research (24.44 )

Pali Research says given the complexity of film accounting, DWA has been a difficult co to model/forecast earnings for since its IPO, but that complexity moved to an all new level following Q4 2007 earnings. The issue that emerged surrounds Toshiba’s payments to DWA to win its support for HD DVD. While HD DVD is a “dead” issue now that Toshiba is winding down HD DVD production, DWA appears to have benefited significantly in Q4 2007 from its Aug. ‘07 agreement with Toshiba with 2008 benefiting meaningfully as well. Firm is maintaining their 2008 EPS est of $1.68, with a more conservative DVD outlook offset by the Toshiba benefits. Given that the Toshiba payments end with the DVD release of Kung Fu Panda, earnings comparisons will become more challenging in 2009.
08:59 MBI MBIA Inc: Moody’s and S&P say MBIA is AAA; debt market not so sure - Bloomberg.com (14.91 )

Bloomberg.com reports Moody’s and S&P say MBIA has enough capital to withstand losses and justify its AAA rating. MBIA’s debt investors aren’t so convinced. Credit-default swaps indicating the risk that MBIA’s bond insurance unit won’t be able to meet its obligations are trading at similar levels to companies such as homebuilder Pulte Homes (PHM), which is rated 10 steps lower. The discrepancy illustrates the skepticism debt investors have about the safety of MBIA’s rating after the company posted $3.4 bln of losses on subprime mortgages last quarter. Moody’s and S&P both said that while at least $4 bln of writedowns lie ahead, MBIA’s mgmt has made enough changes to warrant the top rating. Moody’s yesterday ended a five-week review of MBIA removing the threat of an imminent downgrade. S&P did the same a day earlier and also affirmed the top rating of New York-based Ambac Financial Group (ABK) who is still under review from both S&P and Moody’s.
08:59 S&P futures vs fair value: -9.0. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -15.0.

Futures continue to indicate a lower start for the stock market, and are currently trading near their worst levels of the session. On top of the Bernanke speech, the market will be digesting new home sales data at 10:00 ET and the weekly energy inventory report at 10:30 ET.
08:55 XMSR XM Satellite and Sirius likely to extend 1 March termination date by period in excess of two months, sources say - FT Mergermarket (13.13 ) -Update-

FT Mergermarket reports amid frequent predictions of an imminent close in the XMSR and SIRI deal, the 53-week long DoJ investigation is still underway, reports dealReporter. March 1 2008 marks the day when both parties could walk away from the deal with no break-up fee. However, a former DoJ attorney said this situation is unlikely, especially when both parties have already invested so much in the process. Even if the investigation is concluded before March 1, the FCC will still have to issue a license. A source close to the situation said the post-DoJ process would take at least one to two months but nowhere close to six. The source said the FCC “commissioners know the issues” and that he cannot see the deal being “tremendously delayed” thereafter. The source claimed no knowledge of when DoJ consent would come, and said he would advise XM and Sirius to extend the termination date another three to six months to be sure and give the FCC time to act.
08:53 AEM Agnico-Eagle Mines tgt raised to $71 at RBC (67.39 )

RBC raises their tgt on AEM to $71 from $58. Firm has also revised thier gold and silver forecasts to reflect current market conditions and their outlook for the metals.
08:52 NOC Northrop Grumman: Investor day suggests 10%+ 2008-09 eps gains; tanker an upside wild card - Cowen (79.52 -0.52)

Cowen notes that a relatively upbeat NOC investor day suggests 10%+ 2008-09 EPS gains even if Australia cancels its F-18 buy & BA wins the imminent tanker competition. Thus, while they prefer faster growing RTN, they see little downside to the stock if BA wins tanker given NOC’s 13.7x P/E (10% <peers), 8.3x TEV/EBITDAP, & peer-hi 1.9% div. yield. Because investors appear to assume a BA win while the air force insists it will pick a winner on the merits without political consideration, the firm thinks the decision, due after the mkt close today or Friday, offers the stock 6-8% upside (to peer-P/E) if NOC is selected.
08:51 EXAC Exactech to acquire distribution company in France; expects transaction to be accretive in 2009 (25.20 )

Co announces the opening of a wholly-owned distribution subsidiary in Japan and the planned acquisition of a distribution subsidiary in France. EXAC said it will acquire the stock and assets of France Medica S.A.S, a Strasbourg-based importer and distributor of orthopaedic products and surgical supplies. The total purchase price is projected to be 6.8 mln to 7.1 mln euros. EXAC expects France Medica’s FY08 revenues will be approx 8.0 mln euros. The purchase price for France Medica involves 5.4 mln euros to be paid upon closing and 1.4 mln to 1.7 mln euros in earn-out payments based on the performance of France Medica over the next two years. EXAC expects the transaction to be neutral to earnings in 2008 and accretive in 2009.
08:50 Select internet software and services stocks reinstated at Merrill

Merrill reinstates Citrix (CTXS), Symantec (SYMC), and VeriSign (VRSN) with Neutrals
08:49 ECONX Durable Orders Follow Up

January durable goods new orders fell 5.3%. Surprisingly, this headline decline does not represent bad economic news. Orders rose 4.4% in December and 0.5% in November and a decline was fully expected. It was larger than the median forecast of 4% by economists, but this is a very volatile number and the net change the past three months is essentially flat. Excluding transportation, orders were down 1.6%, compared to an expected decline of 1.4%. That is well within economists’ ability to forecast this series and this follows a 2.0% increase. Other key components of orders were also weak, including the nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft category that is sometimes considered a barometer of business investment. It was down 1.4%. But this category was up 5.2% the prior month. The declines in orders for January are a reaction to surprisingly strong orders in December and a generally decent trend prior to that. It should be expected that orders will be soft given the overall economic climate, but orders are actually holding up quite well compared to the 2001 recession trends. The January declines reverse the net gain the prior two months, but a flat trend for November through January is not bad considering that orders normally drop much more dramatically ahead of recessions. Furthermore, the sum of orders the past three months represents more than just a flat trend. The extra orders that pushed December up, and the absence of which led to the January drop, raise the total of orders over the past three months above a truly flat trend, and will still lead to production and shipments in the months ahead.
08:48 CRI Carter Holdings downgraded to Hold from Buy at Sterne Agee- tgt cut to $23 from $30 (22.21 )

08:48 DLTR Dollar Tree beats by $0.02, reports revs in-line; guides Q1 EPS in-line, revs in-line; guides FY09 EPS in-line, revs in-line (26.41 )

Reports Q4 (Dec) earnings of $1.04 per share, $0.02 better than the First Call consensus of $1.02; revenues fell 1.5% year/year to $1.3 bln vs the $1.3 bln consensus. Co issues in-line guidance for Q1, sees EPS of $0.37-0.40 vs. $0.38 consensus; sees Q1 revs of $1.01-1.04 bln vs. $1.02 bln consensus. Co issues in-line guidance for FY09, sees EPS of $2.17-2.35 vs. $2.24 consensus; sees FY09 revs of $4.49-4.62 bln vs. $4.58 bln consensus.
08:46 CCU Clear Channel: Credit Suisse defects from syndicate again, tells investors ‘name your price’ - FT Mergermarket (33.80 )

FT Mergermarket reports the co arranger Credit Suisse again broke ranks with a bank syndicate today when it reached out to select buyside accounts with an offer of tailor-made OIDs on orders exceeding $100 mln, said two sources familiar with the situation. The bank adopted a “name your own price” marketing strategy to unload chunks of the $19.525 bln credit facility, they said. The decision to offer bespoke terms to investors in jumbo loans reflects underwriters’ increasing desperation to clear their balance sheets of the hung deals left over from last year’s LBO frenzy. Credit Suisse is proving more aggressive than most in this respect. The bank unilaterally sold off its portion of a $7.25 bln loan backing the purchase of Harrah’s Entertainment in January before other arrangers — Bank of America and Deutsche Bank — could price the transaction, buyside sources said.
08:45 FIFG 1st Independence Financial and MainSource Financial Group announce agreement to merge 1st Independence into MainSource; 1st Independence shareholders will receive $5.475 in cash and .881036 shares of MainSource common stock (10.79 )

MainSource Financial Group (MSFG) and FIFG, and 1st Independence Bank, a wholly owned subsidiary of FIFG, jointly announce the signing of a definitive agreement on February 26, 2008, to merge 1st Independence into MSFG. As a result of the merger, 1st Bank will become a wholly owned subsidiary of MainSource. The merger has been approved by the boards of directors of both companies. The merger agreement provides that 1st Independence’s shareholders will receive $5.475 in cash and .881036 shares of MSFG common stock for each share of 1st Independence stock owned. Based on MainSource’s Feb 26, 2008 closing price of $14.60/share, the transaction values 1st Independence at $18.34 per share or $37.0 mln in the aggregate, including the cashout value of 1st Independence’s in-the-money stock options.
08:45 PENN Penn National sponsors scratching their heads over original price; no indication of re-cut yet, sources say - FT Mergermarket (46.72 )

FT Mergermarket reports with the co shares taking a year-long beating in the eye of the credit storm, buyout sponsors Fortress and Centerbridge are aware that the original deal price for the casino operator might not be the best reflection of today’s market or of the fair value of Penn’s properties, according to dealReporter. “You don’t have to have a PhD in math to understand that [the buyers] bought at the top of the cycle and overpaid for properties that are not as glamorous as those of Harrah’s,” according to a source close to the deal. He went on to acknowledge Harrah’s, which had an unsuccessful showing in its own syndication efforts, has not only more, but higher quality real estate than Penn… When asked whether the sponsors might request a re-cut on the deal, the source admitted the possibility exists but that he had no indication the sponsors are pursuing or will pursue that avenue. Banks are on board for funding the deal and the merger contract contains a specific performance, leaving sponsors little room to wiggle out of the current agreement, the source said. However, if a price re-cut were to emerge, it would make it easier for banks to change their position, said the source. Still, market investors are sceptical any deal will happen with Penn currently trading around $46.00 per share on the deal valued at $67 per share. “I hear the deal has no way of closing,” said an equity investor. He gave a litany of reasons this deal has everything going against it: closed credit mkts, private equity shops under significant pressure, and regional market gaming results rapidly deteriorating.
08:42 SCANX Gapping down

In reaction to weak earnings/guidance: ADSK -13.0% (also downgraded to Hold at Needham and downgraded to Accumulate at ThinkEquity), DY -8.8%, LAMR -8.7%, NT -8.3%, URS -7.1%, CRI -6.5%, ESST -5.9%, DRC -5.3%, BTUI -5.1%, APSG -4.8%, FNM -4.5%, DYN -4.4%, OSG -4.3%, CVTX -3.6%, IHP -3.1%, BMRN -2.9%, BID -2.8%, RRC -2.7%, TX -2.6%, SQM -2.1%, SCRX -1.7%, MGA -1.4%, ORA -1.4%… Select solar stocks showing weakness following multiple downgrades: JASO -8.1% (downgraded to Neutral at BofA), SOLF -6.6% (downgraded to Sell at BofA), TSL -5.0% (downgraded to Sell at BofA), YGE -4.7% (downgraded to Neutral at BofA), LDK -1.5%, ESLR -1.4%, FSLR -1.2%… Select agriculture names showing weakness: CF -2.6%, TRA -2.5%, MOS -2.3%, AGU -2.2%, POT -2.2%, MON -1.8%… Other news: RJA -4.7% (still checking), EEP -3.8% (announces an offering of ~4 mln of its Class A common units), FRE -2.9% (down in sympathy with FNM), CF -2.9% (reports outage at its Medicine Hat, Alberta Nitrogen complex), ENS -2.7% (registers to sell 5 mln shares of common stock for holders), DAL -2.6% (CEO Anderson says no merger agreement yet with Northwest Air), AZN -2.2% (stopping study on the experimental cancer drug Recentin - DJ), KMP -1.9% (files for a 4.3 mln common unit secondary offering), JPM -1.4% (estimates cut at Citigroup), AMGN -1.6% and JNJ -1.1% (anemia drugs have blood clot, death risk, according to study - DJ)… Analyst downgrades: COST -2.2% (hearing downgraded to Neutral at tier 1 firm), EOG -1.6% (downgraded to Hold at Citigroup), CHK -1.5% (downgraded to Hold at Citigroup), GLNG -1.4% (downgraded to Hold at Jefferies), KWK -1.0% (downgraded to Hold at Citigroup).
08:42 T AT&T Exec says not pleased with 4Q figures, but sees better 1Q - DJ (35.57 )

08:41 LXP Lexington beats by $0.04, beats on revs; guides FY08 FFO in-line (15.43 )

Reports Q4 (Dec) funds from operations of $0.43 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.04 better than the First Call consensus of $0.39; revenues rose 145.1% year/year to $122.3 mln vs the $116 mln consensus. Co issues in-line guidance for FY08, sees FFO of $1.56-1.64 vs. $1.57 consensus.
08:41 PXP Plains Exploration beats by $0.12, beats on revs; reiterates FY08 guidance (53.59 )

Reports Q4 (Dec) earnings of $0.81 per share, $0.12 better than the First Call consensus of $0.69; revenues rose 137.8% year/year to $493.6 mln vs the $481 mln consensus. “PXP reiterates the previously issued full year 2008 operating and financial guidance and today provided a range for estimated 2008 depreciation, depletion and amortization per BOE of $17.25 - $17.75.”
08:41 ADSK Autodesk tgt cut to $44 at Lehman (39.10 ) -Update-

Lehman cuts their tgt on ADSK to $44 from $60 following disappointing 4Q/FY09 earnings outlook on unanticipated increase in opex. Firm believes concern of U.S. slowdown despite strong international performance/outlook and higher expense outlook likely to weigh on sentiment in near-term. Look for stock to settle at $35 level representing PEG of 1x their EPS growth outlook of 16%.
08:39 LXP sees FY08 funds from operations of $1.56-1.64 vs $1.57 First Call consensus

08:39 LXP prelim funds from operations of $0.20 vs $0.39 First Call consensus; revs $122.3 mln vs $116.00 mln First Call consensus

08:38 WIRES On The Wires

Cash Systems (CKNN) announces the signing of a Letter of Intent to provide Cash Systems powercash product to American Gaming Group’s first casino project, The Wildwood Casino… Regenerex Biopharam (RGN) announces that it has entered into agreements with certain accredited investors with respect to the sale of 5 mln shares of the co’s common stock at a price per share of $1.00, for gross proceeds of $5 mln… O2Micro International (OIIM) was issued 8 claims under United States patent number 7,309,021 for its Dual Mode Smart Card Controller architecture; a continuation of the invention issued December 2006 under United States patent number 7,150,397… Hooper Holmes (HH) announces that it will host a conference call to provide a business update on Tue, March 4th at 2:00 pm ET. The focus of the call will be on the recent leadership transition and near-term operating strategy. As financial results for 2007 are not yet complete, the company will not discuss 4Q07 and year-end financials or 2008 projections… BearingPoint (BE) announces that the Department of Homeland Security has awarded it a Blanket Purchase Agreement for Homeland Security Presidential Directive 12 products and services. BE is one of three firms awarded a five year B.P.A., and D.H.S. estimates a total potential value of approx $180 mln for the three contracts.
08:38 NVLS Novellus: Caris previews Mid-Quarter update (23.77 )

Caris says NVLS will hold their mid-quarter update after the close on Feb 28. Firm expects the co to maintain their guidance. Although industry conditions remain challenging they have not detected any new rounds of cancellations or push-outs. Firm believes the catalysts for NVLS shares will be market share gains and improving earnings leverage. Firm maintains their Above Average rating and their above consensus FY08 ests of $1.5 bln/$2.11.
08:38 JPM JP Morgan Chase: YTD declines in leverage loan, CMBS and RMBS prices will force another round of mark to market hits for the large cap banks in 1Q08 - Citigroup (43.72 ) -Update-

Citigroup believes that YTD declines in leverage loan, CMBS and RMBS prices will force another round of mark to market hits for the large cap banks in 1Q08, although marks will be less severe than seen in 4Q. The firm estimates a $2.15 bln impact for BAC ($0.31/shr), $1.44 bln hit for JPM ($0.27), and $590 mln impact for WB ($0.19). At STI they expect M.T.M. losses will roughly offset gains from mark ups on corporate debt, but exposures are harder to pin down. They note that leveraged loans are one of the biggest drivers of mark in 1Q08. Firm cuts their JPM 1Q08 estimate to $0.75 from $1.02 (consensus $0.95).
08:37 PXP prelim $0.81 vs $0.69 First Call consensus; revs $493.63 mln vs $480.98 mln First Call consensus

08:35 CRDN Ceradyne tgt cut to $60 at Needham (35.75 ) -Update-

Needham cuts their tgt on CRDN to $60 from $101 following 4Q07 results. Firm believes CRDN is an attractive investment for the following reasons: 1) There is potential for revenue growth after 2008 driven by vehicle armor and aluminum extraction businesses; 2) Technological and manufacturing leadership position in a variety of advanced ceramic materials; 3) Aggressively positioning itself to diversify into non military opportunities as solar.
08:34 EIX Edison beats by $0.07, misses on revs; guides FY08 EPS in-line (52.36 )

Reports Q4 (Dec) earnings of $0.65 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.07 better than the First Call consensus of $0.58; revenues rose 4.7% year/year to $3.21 bln vs the $3.5 bln consensus. Co issues in-line guidance for FY08, sees EPS of $3.61-4.01 vs. $3.70 consensus.
08:34 ADSK Autodesk downgraded to Hold at Needham (39.10 ) -Update-

Needham downgrades ADSK to Hold from Buy following earnings. The firm says Autodesk remains a very well positioned company, but in the face of spreading economic uncertainty in a major geography, they believe it will be difficult for Autodesk to be a good stock for the next 6-9 months.
08:33 S&P futures vs fair value: -8.6. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -14.5.

Futures come under additional selling pressure, and then dip a bit more on an economic report. Just released, January durable good orders fell 5.3%, which is more than the consensus estimate that called for a decline of 4.0%. Excluding transportation, orders fell 1.6%, compared to the expected decline of 1.4%. In corporate news, Fannie Mae (FNM) reported a larger than expected loss, although it is not clear if it is comparable to the consensus estimate.
08:32 FSS Federal Signal beats by $0.03, beats on revs (11.00 )

Reports Q4 (Dec) earnings of $0.17 per share, $0.03 better than the First Call consensus of $0.14; revenues rose 3.5% year/year to $351 mln vs the $343.8 mln consensus.
08:32 CAST ChinaCast Education initiated with a Buy at Brean Murray- tgt $9 (5.38 )

Brean Murray initiates CAST with a Buy and a $9 tgt saying they believe that ChinaCast should benefit from the booming private education market in China. The firm says with a combination of its e-learning platform and brick and mortar campuses, ChinaCast is poised to expand its market share in post-secondary and vocational education markets. They also believe the roll-out of “Daily English” schools will help the company venture into the fast-growing language training market in China and provide additional earnings power.
08:32 WRNC Warnaco Group: Raising ests and tgt tp $44 as Warnaco does Calvin right - Brean Murray (36.67 )

Brean Murray is raising their 2008 EPS est, rolling out a further double-digit bottom-line growth est for 2009, increasing their tgt to $44 (from $39) and maintaining their Buy rating after WRNC announced better than expected 4Q07 results and introduced formal 2008 guidance above their projections. Solid top- and bottom-line upside for 4Q07 provided a vivid demonstration of the power of the Calvin brand and mgmt’s ability to register higher margins in a tough environment. Firm believes that in 2008, as the rev mix shifts to higher-margin international business and the co feels the full effects of its restructuring of the swim and lingerie businesses, WRNC has the potential to register further material top- and bottom-line upside.
08:31 WPO Washington Post reports Q4 EPS of $8.71 vs $8.85 First Call consensus; revs $1.13 bln vs $1.11 bln First Call consensus (726.00 )

08:31 SKP SCPIE Holdings letter to stockholders refutes Stilwell’s statements (27.00 )

Co announces the mailing of a letter to its stockholders, reiterating the SCPIE Board’s continuing support of The Doctors Company all-cash offer of $28 per share, and refuting many of the statements made by Joe Stilwell in several recent letters to SCPIE stockholders. “Stilwell would have you believe that the “spot” price of ACAP’s stock today is a relevant data point. It is not. He further wants you to believe that the thinly traded stock of this Michigan company, which has been affected by its recently announced stock buyback programs, could have had a value higher than $28 per share under the terms of their offer last October. What he fails to point out is that it just as easily could have been valued at well less than $28 per share at the time of the closing of the transaction.”
08:31 FSS prelim $0.17 vs $0.14 First Call consensus; revs $351 mln vs $343.77 mln First Call consensus

08:31 Stock index futures slump to pre~mkt lows as traders digest Durable Goods figures

S&P 500 (ES H @ 1373.00 -9.75. Nasdaq 1oo (NQ H @ 17800.00 -16.75
08:31 EIX sees FY08 $3.61-4.01 vs $3.70 First Call consensus

08:31 EIX prelim $0.65 vs $0.58 First Call consensus; revs $3.21 bln vs $3.50 bln First Call consensus

08:30 AXL American Axle: UAW challenges American Axle - Detroit News (22.94 ) -Update-

Detroit News reports the United Auto Workers union is digging in against the co, saying it must see key financial information about the company before it can assess the supplier’s demand for across-the-board wage and benefit cuts. The issue is a hot point because the union consented to historic givebacks last year in contract talks with Detroit’s Big Three automakers but was allowed to review the finances of GM and F. The UAW has also agreed to drastic wage cuts at Delphi and other auto suppliers, mostly as a result of bankruptcy proceedings. American Axle spokeswoman Renee Rogers said the supplier has “provided the union with all the information they are entitled to receive.”
08:30 ECONX January Durable Goods Orders ex-trans -1.6% vs -1.4% consensus, prior month +2.0%

08:30 ECONX January Durable Goods Orders -5.3% vs -4.0% consensus, prior month revised +4.4%

08:29 BONDX Bid Before Bernanke

The market found a good bid ahead of what is likely to be bad data and moderately dovish testimony by the Fed chief. Globally bonds were bought overnight as equities pared recent gains but overall sentiment in both markets remains mixed and data dependent. The 2-10-yr yield spread is bending steeper at 188.1. Bond prices in the EuroZone were up but saw some pullback following hawkish ECB commentary while in Japan, bonds were lightly bid on value (yields at near 8-week high - Bloomberg) ahead factory data. Treasuries will peek at more housing data this morning which continue to plumb the depths of multi-year lows. Refis had another bad week according MBA’s mortgage application repo setting the bar maybe even lower. Bernanke takes the Hill today to begin his 2-day testimony. He will speak of the ongoing seizures in housing and credit markets setting the stage for further easing on the back of downside growth risks but some attention will need to be paid to inflation. The market will attempt to divine just how much easing he is considering in light of pesky inflation data. The odds-on favorite stands at 50 basis points next month and room for another 50 bps by Jun. Supply also weighs with the monthly 2- & 5-yr auction hitting today and tomorrow. The dollar got further slammed on the euro, taking out new record levels to trade near 1.5090, with more rate cut denial out of ECB officials and ongoing US cuts. The yen is headed towards its best levels on the month, looking at 106.00. Gold is working higher with spot now 957.91 (+9.76) as the buck keeps stumbling while crude saw further gains as inflation worries uptick,now 101.03 (+0.15) after a run through 102. Data due has durable orders (8:30) and new home sales (10). The $26B 2-yr note auction goes and the big bad Bernanke testimony hits at 10. The euro is at 1.5045 and the yen is at 106.3440 while the 10-yr is +20/32 yielding 3.782%.
08:28 CSCO Cisco Systems: To announce new edge router focusing on services - Stifel (24.07 )

Stifel says their checks indicate that CSCO is likely to release a new edge router on March 4 called the ASR 1000. The router, they believe, is based on the new QuantumFlow chip that the co introduced earlier this week. The new product is being targeted at both the service provider and enterprise markets. Firm believes the two biggest selling features of the new router are multiple embedded services and a small footprint.
08:28 FNM Fannie Mae files 10-K, issues mortgage market overview (26.97 ) -Update-

Co reports Y07 EPS of ($2.63), includes an increase of $2.8 bln in provision for credit losses, an increase of $5.1 bln in market-valuation losses, and a decrease of $2.2 bln in net interest income; excluding gain, co reports EPS of ($3.79), may not compare to ($0.05) consensus. “Mortgage and housing market conditions, which significantly affect our business and our financial performance, worsened progressively through 2007. The housing market downturn that began in the second half of 2006 continued through 2007 and is continuing in 2008. The most recent available data show significant declines in new and existing home sales, housing starts and mortgage originations compared with prior year levels. We estimate that home prices declined by 3.1% on a national basis during 2007. With weak housing activity and national home price declines, growth in total U.S. residential mortgage debt outstanding slowed to an estimated annual rate of 8% in the first nine months of 2007, compared with 12% over the first nine months of 2006. These challenging market and economic conditions caused a material increase in mortgage delinquencies and foreclosures during 2007. The credit performance of subprime and Alt-A loans, as well as other higher risk loans, has deteriorated sharply during the past year, and even the prime conventional portion of the mortgage market has seen signs of credit distress. Many lenders have tightened lending standards or elected to stop originating subprime and other higher risk loans completely which has adversely affected many borrowers seeking alternative financing to refinance out of adjustable-rate mortgages (”ARMs”) resetting to higher rates. We expect the slower growth trend in U.S. residential mortgage debt outstanding to continue throughout 2008, and we believe average home prices are likely to continue to decline in 2008… We expect housing market weakness to continue in 2008, leading to increased delinquencies, defaults and foreclosures on mortgage loans, and slower growth in U.S. residential mortgage debt outstanding. Based on our current market outlook, we expect that our credit losses and credit-related expenses will continue to increase during 2008, as will our guaranty fee income. We also believe that our single-family guaranty book of business will grow at a faster rate than the rate of overall growth in U.S. residential mortgage debt outstanding. We have experienced an increased level of volatility and a significant decrease in the fair value of our net assets since the end of 2007, due to the continued widening of credit spreads since the end of the year and the ongoing disruption in the mortgage and credit markets. If current market conditions persist, we expect the fair value of our net assets will decline in 2008 from the estimated fair value of $35.8 billion as of December 31, 2007.”
08:27 PLAB Photronics: Is Photronics on the block? - EE Times (10.72 )

EE Times reports is the photomask industry hitting a speed bump or headed towards a crisis? The truth could be somewhere in the middle. Amid soaring photomask prices and slow business conditions, rumors are running rampant that the only remaining merchant photomask maker in the United States–Photronics Inc.–is on the block. Some industry analysts dismissed the rumors. Other sources speculated that Photronics is in talks with an unnamed party to be acquired. Most wonder why anyone would want to invest in the photomask arena; the margins are tiny and the business is tough. Executives from Photronics have not returned calls. But if Photronics is sold to a foreign party, the U.S. could find itself without a merchant photomask maker. It also could have some implications for MU, which has a joint photomask venture with Photronics.
08:24 FWLT Foster Wheeler tgt cut to $90 at Stifel (67.26 ) -Update-

Stifel cuts their tgt on FWLT to $90 from $94 following 4Q07 results. Firm says that falling scope rev as a percentage of total rev and a rising tax rate cause firm to trim their 2008 EPS est from $3.64 to $3.37, still within the $3.19 to $3.50 consensus (mean $3.42 before today’s changes), and for 2009 their est goes from $4.56 to $4.13 as they adopt a show-me posture with respect to GP margins.
08:22 WMZ William Pipeline Partners initiated with a Buy at Stifel- tgt $21 (19.55 )

Stifel initiates WMZ with a Buy and a $21 tgt saying they view the initial partnership asset (35% interest in the Northwest Pipeline) as very strategic given the captive nature of many of its customers. Some customers in the Northwestern U.S. rely on this pipeline for their sole source of interstate gas deliveries. The firm says the cash flows associated with the Northwest system are stable.
08:22 JRJC China Finance Online: In-line 4Q07 results and reaffirmed guidance may be good enough - Brean Murray (16.98 )

Brean Murray expects JRJC to report 4Q07 results consistent with its preannouncement and to reaffirm its 2008 guidance when it reports earnings on Feb 28. Given the extremely challenging environment in recent months, they believe the reaffirmation of guidance should be enough to mitigate many investors concerns regarding the co’s business outlook. Firm could see a modest positive reaction following earnings.
08:21 HWAY Healthways upgraded to Buy at Stifel- tgt $39 (31.93 )

Stifel upgrades HWAY to Buy from Hld with a $39 tgt noting HWAY lowered its 2008 outlook for total revenues and EPS as a result of slower-than-projected enrollment growth and the failure to close two significant contracts. The firm says wellness and D.M solutions continue to be of interest and evaluated by employers. The firm also says HWAY is experiencing strong sales momentum illustrated in $90 mln of annualized, signed business in the fiscal year - more than any other year. Two sizable contracts (at least 4% of total revenue) up for renewal in 2009 have already been signed. This bodes well for those renewals that remain. In addition, they believe HWAY will have a competitive advantage for key D.M prospects in the coming year due to potential integration concerns of the pending Inverness and Matria merger.
08:21 ALU Alcatel-Lucent: French govt denies plans to enter Alcatel-Lucent capital - DJ (6.37 )

DJ reports spokesman for the French govt denied the govt is planning to enter into the co’s capital, contrary to press reports. “These are pure speculations, I deny them most formally,” government spokesman Laurent Wauquiez said at a press conference. Earlier, the French finance ministry also said the French govt doesn’t intend to buy a stake in Alcatel-Lucent.
08:20 SCANX Gapping up

In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: ACY +32.2% (restates 2006 and 2007 quarterly results), HCKT +16.9%, EDAC +13.1%, LKQX +11.5%, ERES +10.3%, DWA +7.6%, SGY +7.6%, WRNC +6.4%, AXTI +5.7% (also upgraded to Buy at Roth Capital), HLF +5.6%, PCR +5.2%, VPHM +5.1%, MXWL +5.0%, SBLK +4.8%, ENOC +4.7%, SONE +4.0%, ARUN +3.9%, NFLX +3.8%, IRIS +3.3% (also announces successful completion of retrospective study of 85 post-prostatectomy patients), VSNT +3.2%, PZZA +3.1%, STO +2.9%, MEDX +2.7% (also upgraded to Mkt Perform at BMO), TVL +1.5%, BARE +1.4%, COGT +1.4%, CVA +1.1%, TRCA +1.0%… Select gold stocks showing strength with higher spot prices: DROOY +4.2%, GFI +2.7%, GLD +1.2%, HMY +1.0%, NEM +1.0%… Other news: ANO +6.3% (still checking), TTEK +3.1% (awarded $3 bln program ceiling contract to support Air Force Center for Engineering and the Environment), STM +2.9% (still checking), FRO +2.2% (still checking), WST +1.7% (will replace SIE in S&P SmallCap 600 after the close of trading on 2/28), CRXX +1.0% (granted broad patent covering TCA-Glucocorticoid Combinations)… Analyst upgrades: THC +8.2% (upgraded to Hold at Jefferies), PRXI +7.8% (initiated with Buy at Merriman), XLNX +1.5% (upgraded to Buy at UBS).
08:18 BP BP sees 4.3 mln barrels a day by 2012 based on $60 oil price - DJ (67.38 )

DJ reports the co said that in a $60 price world it’s confident not only of boosting output over the next four years but of being able to sustain production of at least 4 mln barrels a day until 2020 even with no new discoveries or access to new opportunities. BP also said it has replaced its annual production by 112% in 2007, taking its proved reserves of oil and gas to 17.8bn barrels. It also added some 2.4bn new barrels to its non-proved resource base which now stands at a further 42.1 bln barrels of oil equivalent. The chief executive, Tony Hayward, said that assuming a $60 oil price, the strength of this position - reinforced by recent access to new opportunities in Oman, Libya and Colombia, along with heavy oil in Canada - supports production potential of around 4.3 mln barrels a day by 2012.
08:18 MTZ MasTec:q07 preview - Kaufman (8.09 )

Kaufman says MTZ is scheduled to report 4Q07 results after the close. Firm expects 4Q07 results to be in line with their recently updated expectations. Firm says results will cap off a year that was less than perfect in its execution. Firm expects MTZ to issue guidance for 2008 that is conservative by design. They expect mgmt to guide to 2008 rev growth of 9% to 10% and EPS of $0.85 to $0.95 based on an operating margin of 5.5% to 6.5%. The upper range of this guidance would be in line with consensus ests, but is likely lower than some investors’ expectations.
08:17 CSX CSX Corp: TCI agrees to bring CSX feud before US hearing - FT (52.72 ) -Update-

FT reports politicians will enter the increasingly bitter feud between one of London’s most powerful hedge funds and CSX, one of the biggest US railway operators, next week when The Children’s Investment Fund faces scrutiny in Washington. The voluntary appearance of TCI, the second-largest shareholder in CSX, before the House of Representatives subcommittee on railroads has the potential to become a highly politicized step in the attempt by CSX to resist the hedge fund’s demands. TCI founding partner Snehal Amin is expected to face questions about foreign ownership of US infrastructure - a potential minefield for TCI - as well as its secrecy and its questioning of capital spending at CSX. The subcommittee hearing, called to discuss railway investment, will also hear from Michael Ward, the chairman and chief executive of CSX.
08:15 SCSS Select Comfort announces separation of Chairman and CEO roles (5.08 )

Co announces that it has separated the positions of chairman of the board and CEO. The company’s board of directors has appointed Ervin Shames as chairman. Bill McLaughlin, who has held both positions of chairman and CEO since 2004, will continue in his role as president and CEO of the company as well as board director.
08:14 JOE St. Joe Company prices offering of 17,145,000 shares at $35/share (39.68 )

08:14 FNM reports Y07 EPS of ($2.63) may not be comparable to ($0.05) consensus; co reports net revs $11.0 mln

08:14 ADSK Autodesk tgt cut to $38 at Kaufman (39.10 ) -Update-

Kaufman cuts their tgt on ADSK to $38 from $50, which reflects both a reduction in expectations but also a multiple adjustment due to the multiple compression seen in their universe over the last several months. Firm believes that the shares of ADSK will be punished today as investors digest not only the slight reductions in expected EPS but ponder the potential meaning of seeing the sales in the U.S. slipping by roughly 6%. They note that others in the CAD/CAE space have seen a mix of results in the U.S. with PMTC seeing 1% growth and ANSYS seeing growth in the mid-teens.
08:14 GM General Motors voices confidence in lending business - NY Times (24.58 )

NY Times reports despite big losses at the auto and mortgage lender GMAC, General Motors is confident that its partner, the private equity firm Cerberus Capital Mgmt, can fix the troubled financing business. GM’s CFO, Frederick Henderson, said Tuesday that the automaker still expected GMAC to be profitable and saw no need to inject additional cash into the unit. Moreover, Mr. Henderson said that G.M. had no interest in severing its relationship with Cerberus, which acquired 51% of GMAC in 2006. “We’re not considering that today, nor would we,” he said in an interview. “The conditions are not right.”
08:13 FNM Fannie Mae sees delinquencies, foreclosures increasing in 2008- Bloomberg (26.97 ) -Update-

08:12 ECONX Reminder: January Durable Orders due out in about 18 min at 8:30AM ET

08:12 FNM Fannie Mae sees mortgage market trends continuing in 2008; sees increased delinquencies, Credit losses in 2008- Bloomberg (26.97 )

08:10 PRXI Premier Exhibitions announces exclusive long term Licensing Agreement to present Dialogue in the Dark (5.10 )

Co announces that it has entered into an exclusive long term Licensing Agreement to present Dialogue in the Dark. The co is planning to open its first North American engagement in the summer of 2008.
08:09 IHR Interstate Hotels beats by $0.09, beats on revs; guides FY08 EPS above consensus (4.40 )

Reports Q4 (Dec) earnings of $0.33 per share, $0.09 better than the First Call consensus of $0.24; revenues fell 7.2% year/year to $213.9 mln vs the $205 mln consensus. Co issues upside guidance for FY08, sees EPS of $0.30-0.38 vs. $0.24 consensus. “Total FY08 RevPAR is expected to increase 3.0% to 6.0%”
08:08 VOD Vodafone in talks over move into Bangladesh mobile market - Daily Telegraph (33.45 )

Daily Telegraph reports the co is in talks to buy a 30% stake in Bangladesh’s second-largest mobile phone network, AKTEL, for around $300 mln. The discussions, which are at an early stage, underline Vodafone’s determination to tap into Asia’s fast-growing mobile markets to offset slowing growth in Europe. Vodafone has been given initial reassurances from the Bangladeshi telecoms regulator that it would be allowed to buy the 30% stake from AK Khan, a privately owned textiles-to-telecoms co. The remaining 70% of AKTEL is owned by Telekom Malaysia Intl. Vodafone recently played down speculation that it was seeking to acquire a stake in the Malaysian co.
08:08 ALL Allstate: Lehman raising ests for buyback (48.82 )

Lehman says ALL announced a new $2 bln buyback to be completed by March 31, 2009, which is greater than they anticipated. As a result, they are raising their EPS ests to $5.80 in 2008 from $5.75 (consensus $6.15) and to $5.75 from $5.50 in 2009 (conensus $6.19).
08:08 WIRES On The Wires

Invitrogen (IVGN) announces it will become the exclusive provider of fluorescent microRNA microarray labeling kits using Genisphere’s 3DNA dendrimer signal amplification technology, based on the terms of a new license agreement… Commtouch (CTCH) announces a licensing agreement with Aladdin Knowledge Systems (ALDN)… Voltaire (VOLT) announces it has been selected by Q-layer, a provider of data center and storage virtualization software, as the fabric platform for Q-layer’s Virtual Private Data Center solution… AsiaInfo Holdings (ASIA)announces it has authorized an extension of its stock repurchase program, originally announced on Sept 11. The program, which originally authorized the repurchase of up to 3 mln shares, has been extended until July 10, 2008.
08:08 AIG American Intl: 4Q07 earnings preview - Lehman (51.42 ) -Update-

Lehman anticipates a problematic 4Q07 result for AIG and the difficulties could last through at least early 2008. AIG could report 4Q07 adjusted EPS of $0.24 (down 84% YoY), driven by mark-to-market investment losses of nearly $8 bln.
08:07 KSS Kohl’s: Earning preview - Lehman (47.25 )

Lehman says KSS will report 4Q07 EPS on Thur, Feb 28, after the market close. Firm remains comfortable with their 4Q07 EPS est of $1.30, which is in line with consensus. Firm believes there are several potential catalysts to propel the shares higher, both near and longer term, including 1) Their expectations for initiatives in place to drive gross margin expansion; 2) Their expectations for the co’s cash flow profile to continue to strengthen. They would also welcome a more conservative CapEx plan for 2008 from the $1.6-$1.7 bln currently projected and believe KSS’s has flexibility to scale back on store renovation and remodel spending; and 3) Their belief that KSS’s is well poised to gain market share in this difficult environment with the tax rebates acting as a stimulus to sales.
08:05 VMW VMware relationship with BEA Systems (BEAS) expanded to deliver Java virtualization for the enterprise (60.18 )

BEA Systems announces that it is working with VMW to deliver Java virtualization for the enterprise. The new BEA LiquidVM VI Client Extension enables customers to deploy and manage enterprise Java applications as virtual machines within a VMware-virtualized environment. BEAS and VMW collaborated on the development of this seamless extension to VMware VirtualCenter to improve the performance, efficiency and simplicity of Java applications on VMW virtualization software. VMW intends to package it within a future release of their Virtual Center product line.
08:05 LIFC LifeCell beats by $0.02, reports revs in-line; guides FY08 EPS in-line, revs in-line (37.59 )

Reports Q4 (Dec) earnings of $0.19 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.02 better than the First Call consensus of $0.17; revenues rose 32.8% year/year to $52.6 mln vs the $52.2 mln consensus. Co issues in-line guidance for FY08, sees EPS of $0.98-1.06 vs. $1.04 consensus; sees FY08 revs of $233-243 mln vs. $238.89 mln consensus.
08:05 WTR Aqua America misses by $0.02, misses on revs (20.18 )

Reports Q4 (Dec) earnings of $0.18 per share, excludes $0.01 gain from sale of a securities invesment, $0.02 worse than the First Call consensus of $0.20; revenues rose 9.0% year/year to $149.1 mln vs the $152.4 mln consensus.
08:04 SYNO Synovis Life Tech reports Q4 EPS of $0.09 vs $0.06 First Call consensus; revs rose 34% YoY $11.3 mln vs $10.45 mln First Call consensus (17.38 )

“Growth in the quarter came almost exclusively from unit volume gains across all product lines. We began fiscal 2008 with an expanded sales force of 35 representatives for our surgical products and six representatives for our micro-surgical product line. Further, we added one more sales person in each area mid-quarter to end the quarter with a total of 43 representatives. These experienced sales professionals and their talented managers are effectively introducing the benefits of our products to physicians across the country as they build new customer relationships and reinforce existing customer ties. Through our sales force, we are driving two powerful growth opportunities: a portfolio of established products with a strong customer base, and emerging products and applications with significant upside potential.”
08:04 CHTR Charter Comm misses by $0.52, reports revs in-line (1.08 )

Reports Q4 (Dec) loss of $1.27 per share, $0.52 worse than the First Call consensus of ($0.75); revenues rose 9.6% year/year to $1.55 bln vs the $1.55 bln consensus.
08:03 WBD Wimm-Bill-Dann Foods announces corporate restructuring to manage growth and exploit synergies (114.75 )

Co announces a new corporate structure and management positions that will go into effect from March 1st, 2008. As part of the restructuring, the existing Dairy and Baby Food business units, along with the Holding company, will be combined into a single structure: Wimm-Bill-Dann Foods.
08:02 AVAN Avant Immun reports Q4 EPS of ($0.07) vs ($0.07) single estimate; reports revs up 352% yr/yr to $1.7 mln vs $1.6 mln single estimate (0.71 )

08:02 LIFC sees FY08 $0.98-1.06 vs $1.04 First Call consensus; sees revs $233-243 mln vs $238.89 mln First Call consensus

08:02 LIFC prelim $0.19, ex items vs $0.17 First Call consensus; revs $52.6 mln vs $52.23 mln First Call consensus

08:02 S&P futures vs fair value: -4.2. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -6.2.

Futures indicate a modest pullback, which is understandable after three straight sessions of healthy gains that have sent the stock market into positive territory for the month of February. Market participants are awaiting Fed Chairman Bernanke’s testimony on the economy and monetary policy at 10:00 ET. In corporate news, the European Union has fined Microsoft (MSFT) $1.35 billion dollars, the largest EU fine ever, according to reports. The dollar continues to slide as the euro crosses the 1.5 mark for the first time. This is spurring some buying interest in gold (+14.30, 963.20), which hit an all-time non inflation adjusted high of $967.70 per ounce earlier this morning.
08:01 ARTX Arotech’s FAAC subsidiary receives $1.2 mln award from the Maryland Aviation Administration (1.76 )

The co announces that its Training and Simulation Division, through its FAAC Incorporated subsidiary, has been awarded a $1.2 mln contract from the Maryland Aviation Administration. Through an exhaustive search process, the MAA has chosen FAAC to build a custom driver training simulator to provide training for on-field emergency responders and ground support personnel at the Baltimore/Washington Intl Thurgood Marshall Airport.
08:01 CHTR prelim ($1.27) vs ($0.75) First Call consensus; revs $1.55 bln vs $1.55 bln First Call consensus

08:00 WTR prelim $0.19 vs $0.20 First Call consensus; revs $149.1 mln vs $152.38 mln First Call consensus

07:59 IHR prelim $0.33, ex items vs $0.24 First Call consensus; revs $213.93 mln vs $204.99 mln First Call consensus

07:59 GLDD Great Lakes Dredge & Dock: Catalysts likley to wait until after 2008 - Morgan Joseph (6.96 )

Morgan Joseph says GLDD reported 4Q07 earnings as firm expected, on higher revs, but lower gross margins. Although the co continues to win a substantial share of the bid market, funding issues remain for domestic dredging work and the co anticipates ongoing weakness in the U.S. dredge market throughout 2008, despite several longer-term funding catalysts. As a result, the co has sent additional vessels to the Middle East, where there are better bid opportunities at this point in time. Firm says GLDD expects 2008 could be slightly weaker than 2007 and gave guidance for an EBITDA range lower than it achieved in 2007.
07:56 DYAX Dyax beats on Q4 EPS, revs (4.24 )

Reports Q4 EPS of ($0.05) vs ($0.27) First Call consensus; revs $18.2 mln vs $2.78 mln First Call consensus, and increase of 468.7% from 3.2 mln YoY. “With respect to Dyax’s 2008 guidance, we anticipate reducing our cash burn from 2007 through strategic collaborations and partnerships. Since the exact timing of agreements cannot be predicted, Dyax will not provide guidance for expected cash consumption in 2008 at this time. However, we are forecasting that existing cash and planned partnerships will provide sufficient funding through to anticipated DX-88 commercialization early in 2009.”
07:54 XMSR XM Satellite: In greater need of a merger - Morgan Joseph (13.13 )

Morgan Joseph continues to believe that XMSR relies more on the merger than Sirius (SIRI). Given a string of disappointing earnings results and deteriorating fundamentals, their 4Q expectations are relatively low for XMSR. They reiterate their view that the co remains the weaker standalone operator of the two players, and as such, they believe that receiving regulatory approval for the merger is increasingly more important for XM than it is for Sirius. While they were not surprised to hear Sirius reiterate confidence on yesterday’s call (and additionally, they would expect XMSR to do the same), firm continues to believe the ongoing delay serves as evidence that the merger will ultimately not go through.
07:53 OSG Overseas Shipholding beats by $0.10, beats on revs (70.54 )

Last night, OSG reported Q4 (Dec) earnings of $0.67 per share, $0.10 better than the First Call consensus of $0.57; revenues rose 6.6% year/year to $276.8 mln vs the $261.8 mln consensus.
07:52 GCFB Granite City Food & Brewery misses by $0.09, misses on revs (2.21 )

Last night, co reported Q4 (Dec) loss of $0.28 per share, $0.09 worse than the First Call consensus of ($0.19); revenues rose 15.9% year/year to $19.7 mln vs the $21.5 mln consensus. Co reports Q4 comparable restaurant sales -2.6%.
07:52 CSIQ Canadian Solar signs wafer supply contracts with four wafer suppliers (19.32 )

Co announces it signed solar wafer supply contracts with four suppliers, including Jiangsu Shunda Group. Under the contracts, these suppliers will deliver approximately 12 MW of wafers to CSIQ before the summer of 2008, including 4MW from Shunda. Delivery of wafers to CSIQ under these contracts commenced in January 2008. In addition, CSIQ signed a multi-year supply contract with Shunda, which gives CSIQ the option of two fixed prepayments in late 2008 and 2010 for wafer supplies through 2015 at predetermined prices and schedules. If fully executed, the contract is expected to provide more than 700MW of wafers over the eight-year period.
07:51 AMAT Applied Materials: Field data positive for AMAT; marginally negative for FSLR - FBR (19.85 )

Friedman Billings says yesterday’s announcement by Phoenix Solar is as an early indication that AMAT’s thin film technology is beginning to gain traction in the field, especially going against such incumbent T.F. module suppliers as FSLR, Mitsubishi, and Sharp. Phoenix announced the signing of an agreement with Signet, AMAT’s second-largest T.F. customer, for the supply of both amorphous and micromorphous modules over the next several years. Firm says the fact that Phoenix has finally put its support of AMAT’s T.F. solution on paper implies that AMAT has fixed all of the problems it encountered late last year and, as it installs and qualifies at such customers as Signet, they expect to see increased adoption by the end customers, especially when the likes of First Solar are sold out near-term.
07:49 SPSS SPSS Inc downgraded to Hold at Roth Capital- tgt $42, following strong earnings and based on valuation (39.82 )

07:49 AXTI AXT Inc upgraded to Buy at Roth Capital- tgt $6.80 (4.95 )

Roth Capital upgrades AXTI to Buy from Hold with a $6.80 tgt following earnings. The firm says while they were disappointed with the gross margin decline, they were pleased to see operating margin expanding to 9.8% from 8.3% in 3Q, driven by strong sales. Firm says they were also pleased with the Ge sales increasing 39% q-q, and the co indicated that three customers are close to going into production.
07:49 NYT New York Times to meet dissidents’ slate - WSJ (19.15 -0.44)

WSJ reports the committee at the co charged with vetting candidates for the board will meet as early as next week with nominees put forward by a dissident shareholder group. The meeting could be a first step toward a decision to recommend a vote for some of the group’s nominees. Such a decision could avert a threatened proxy fight by the shareholders, Harbinger Capital Partners and Firebrand Partners, which Monday disclosed they had raised their stake in the publishing company to 19%. At that level, the group has a reasonable chance of winning the proxy contest for four seats on the Times’s 13-member board.
07:49 REGN Regeneron Pharms reports Q4 EPS of ($0.19) vs ($0.47) First Call consensus; revs $64.73 mln vs $26.39 mln First Call consensus (18.66 )

07:48 SCANX Early pre-market gappers

Gapping up: ERES +10.3%, SGY +7.6%, WRNC +6.4%, AXTI +5.7%, HLF +5.6%, DWA +5.2%, MXWL +5.0%, SBLK +4.8%, ENOC +4.7%, ARUN +3.9%, NFLX +3.8%, VSNT +3.2%, STM +2.9%, STO +2.9%, MEDX +2.7%, GFI +2.7%, FRO +2.2%, WST +1.7%, BARE +1.4%, CVA +1.1%… Gapping down: ADSK -10.1%, DY -8.8%, URS -7.1%, CRI -6.5%, JASO -5.6%, DRC -5.3%, BTUI -5.1%, EEP -3.8%, CVTX -3.6%, SUPG -3.0%, BMRN -2.9%, CF -2.9%, ENS -2.7%, DAL -2.6%, CF -2.6%, ING -2.6%, AGU -2.4%, BCS -2.3%, COST -2.2%, BID -2.0%, KMP -1.8%, SCRX -1.7%, POT -1.7%, MOS -1.7%, TRA -1.5%, MON -1.5%, COGT -1.3%, AMGN -1.2%, JNJ -1.0%.
07:46 Health insurers address issue of nixed policies - WSJ

WSJ reports the health-insurance industry is racing to defuse a growing furor over retroactive policy cancelations that have saddled some patients with big medical bills and sparked lawsuits. America’s Health Insurance Plans, an industry group, is pushing a proposal with state regulators that would give consumers the right to appeal such policy cancelations, known as rescissions, to an external panel, whose decisions would be binding. Some insurance companies, eager for even quicker action, are preparing to roll out their own independent review programs. The efforts, which are getting a largely positive reception from consumer groups, are emerging amid public outrage in several states against insurers that have voided policies after the beneficiaries started racking up large claims for cancer or other serious illnesses. (Stocks mentioned: HNT, AZ, WLP)
07:43 CKP Checkpoint Systems reports EPS in-line, beats on revs; guides FY08 EPS in-line (24.54 )

Reports Q4 (Dec) earnings of $0.52 per share, excluding non-recurring items, in-line with the First Call consensus of $0.52; revenues rose 21.5% year/year to $262.7 mln vs the $250 mln consensus. Co issues in-line guidance for FY08, sees EPS of $1.65-1.75, excluding non-recurring items, vs. $1.66 consensus.
07:43 Solar initiation details

As mentioned at 6:39 Citigroup initiates STP with a Buy and a $55 tgt and YGE with a Hold and a $ 24 tgt saying they believe the demand outlook for the solar industry continues to be favorable, driven by increased policy adoption of solar incentives by governments worldwide. From the supply side, the polysilicon shortage is likely to shift into oversupply by 2H09 and 2010, causing an industry correction. The firm says investors should pick solar companies with superior scale and cost leadership that can weather an industry correction. They view Suntech and Yingli as the long-term winners in the China solar industry.
07:43 Senate Panel to question payment to surgeons - WSJ

WSJ reports five makers of orthopedic implants paid more than $221 mln to surgeon “consultants” in 2007, according to a U.S. Senate committee that plans to question the payments at a hearing today. The cos — ZMH and Biomet; SYK; SNN, and the DePuy Orthopaedics unit of JNJ — agreed to disclose the payments in September in settling govt allegations that they violated antikickback laws by paying physicians to use their products exclusively. Four of the cos — all but Stryker — also agreed to pay $310 mln to settle claims that the payments were, in reality, rewards to doctors who selected a co’s hip and knee implants, even when they weren’t necessarily the best for a particular patient. Stryker agreed to govt supervision but didn’t make a payment. The cos didn’t admit any wrongdoing.
07:43 NBL Noble Energy announces 2008 plans; capital investment program is set at approx $1.6 bln (80.91 ) -Update-

Co announces its capital budget for 2008, and states its capital investment program is set at approx $1.6 bln with 74% designated for development activities, 24% on exploration efforts and the remainder for corporate expenditures and other items. Development spending will focus on the company’s extensive low-risk project inventory in the Rocky Mountain region, existing deepwater Gulf of Mexico discoveries and the expansion of producing assets in the North Sea and China. The exploration budget will focus on significant resource potential in the deepwater Gulf of Mexico, West Africa, Israel and Suriname. For 2008, total volumes are estimated to average between 205 to 216 MBoepd, which includes equity method investment volumes - condensate and liquid petroleum gas. Volumes are expected to begin the year well above 4Q07 levels and then stay relatively flat for the remainder of the year. The price differential for crude oil in the United States is expected to range from $4.00 to $5.00 per barrel below W.T.I. International crude oil differentials based off dated Brent, are premiums that should range from $1.00 to $2.00 per barrel for West Africa and $2.00 to $3.00 per barrel for the North Sea. Crude oil differentials for China should be $12.50 to $14.50 per barrel below WTI. The natural gas price differential for the United States is expected to range from $0.25 to $1.00 per Mcf below NYMEX Henry Hub, and includes a Btu processing uplift where applicable. The North Sea differential should average from $0.50 to $1.00 per Mcf below NYMEX Henry Hub. Price realizations for West Africa are estimated to be $0.27 per Mcf and for Israel are anticipated to range from $2.75 to $2.85 per Mcf.
07:42 ADSK Autodesk: Color on quarter (39.10 ) -Update-

Jefferies says ADSK’s F4Q08 earnings results beat on revenues ($599 vs us/ consensus at $583M/ $581) but missed on EPS ($0.52 vs firm/consensus at $0.56/$0.54). Revenue guidance was maintained for F1Q09 and FY09, but EPS was lowered. FY09 EPS is now expected to be $2.15-2.25 from prior $2.20-2.26. Firm says it seems that the economy is finally catching up, as Americas growth slows dramatically, 3D unit growth turns negative and EPS is revised down due to higher costs (not lower revs)… Citi says that despite FQ4 rev upside, co reiterated FY09 rev guidance, and valid explanations for lower EPS guidance, and says there is an uneasy feeling that more negative surprises could develop in FY09 beyond FQ4’s meager 2% y/y growth in Americas region. Firm’s new $40 tgt reflects slightly lower ests and a lower P/E to account for potential macro risks. Even after the 10% drop in after hrs, stock is not compelling given downside risks to forecast.
07:42 NFLX Netflix raises EPS, revenue and subscriber guidance for Q1 & FY08 (29.00 )

Co raises guidance for Q1 (Mar), sees EPS of $0.15-0.22 from $0.13-0.21 vs. $0.20 First Call consensus; sees Q1 (Mar) revs of $324-328 mln from $323-328 mln vs. $325.18 mln consensus. Co sees ending subscribers of 8.16-8.26 mln up from 7.85-8.05 mln prior guidance. Co issues raises guidance above consensus for FY08 (Dec), to EPS of $1.18-1.30 from $1.12-1.24 vs. $1.17 consensus; raises revenue guidance for FY08 (Dec) to revs of $1.34-1.39 bln from $1.3-1.35 bln vs. $1.33 bln consensus. Co FY08 ending subscribers of 8.9-9.5 mln up from prior guidance of 8.4-8.9 mln. Revised guidance for the full year 2008 for GAAP net income and GAAP EPS reflects the impact on interest income and weighted average common shares outstanding of the completion of the $100 million stock repurchase program announced earlier this year.
07:40 NBL Noble Energy beats by $0.10, beats on revs (80.91 )

Reports Q4 (Dec) earnings of $1.73 per share, $0.10 better than the First Call consensus of $1.63; revenues rose 29.0% year/year to $921.5 mln vs the $835.4 mln consensus. Co sees sales volume of 205-216 thousands of barrels of oil equivalent per day in Y08. Co’s capital investment program is set at approx $1.6 bln.
07:40 DOX Amdocs: Looking for a DOX inflexion point - Citi (31.01 )

Citi would buy DOX, as multiple factors should help the stock here: 1) an expected inflexion point in rev growth, margins 2) the Sprint conversion contract overhang should be behind DOX by May 3) continued progress in new business signings. Investor fear that the overall economic slowdown will affect a telecom services co like DOX is misplaced and creates an especially attractive entry point for new money to be invested in DOX.
07:39 VPHM ViroPharma beats by $0.05, misses on revs; reaffirms FY08 revs guidance (9.23 )

Reports Q4 (Dec) earnings of $0.25 per share, $0.05 better than the First Call consensus of $0.20; revenues rose 23.9% year/year to $47.7 mln vs the $50.4 mln consensus. Co reaffirms guidance for FY08, sees FY08 revs of $210-235 mln vs. $210.35 mln consensus.
07:38 NBL prelim $1.73 vs $1.63 First Call consensus; revs $921.5 mln

07:38 FWLT Foster Wheeler: Middle East outlook remainds robust; tgt raised to $104 - Citi (67.26 )

Citi says FWLT reportes Q4 pro forma EPS of $0.54, roughly inline with our Street low est of $0.58, but below consensus ests of $0.76. Firm believes consensus had an overly exuberant shortterm view. That said, they still find significant upside in FWLT shares with a flat margin assumption. Foster’s Middle Eastern outlook continues to be more robust than any other E&C company they follow. Firm sees over $24 bln of potential projects on which FWLT is bidding in the Middle East alone over the next 12 months, with an expected win value of $4.3 bln. Firm increases tgt to $104 from $97.
07:38 CLHB Clean Harbors beats by $0.14, beats on revs; guides Q1 revs in-line (57.17 )

Reports Q4 (Dec) earnings of $0.81 per share, $0.14 better than the First Call consensus of $0.67; revenues rose 11.2% year/year to $257.7 mln vs the $244.5 mln consensus. Co issues in-line guidance for Q1, sees Q1 revs of $225-230 mln vs. $225.67 mln consensus; co sees EBITDA of $27-29 mln. “In 2008, we anticipate achieving our long-stated goal of becoming a $1 billion organization. Based on the operating leverage inherent in our network of disposal facilities, we believe we can grow our EBITDA at a significantly higher rate than our revenues in 2008.”
07:37 Independent Oil and Gas downgrade details

As mentioned at 6:23 Citigroup downgraded Southwestern Energy (SWN), EOG Resources (EOG), Quicksilver Resources (KWK) and Chesapeake Energy (CHK) based on valuation as the upside to their tgt prices is insufficent to warrent a Buy rating. The firm says they are bullish overall on the sector for the remainder of the year but would be looking for better entry points to add to positions as the stocks transition from the heating season to the warmer months. The firm says investors should be prepared to take quick action as entry opportunities may prove to be fleeting.
07:36 YHOO Yahoo!’s stake in Asia is key for MSFT’s bid - WSJ (28.22 )

WSJ reports in mid-December, weeks before MSFT made its unsolicited offer to buy YHOO, several senior executives from the software giant spun through China, South Korea and Japan to study the countries’ Internet mkts. People familiar with the trip say the executives reached a crucial conclusion: To compete in Asia, any outside co needs to work with the local Internet players that dominate the competition. Yahoo already has that connection, and Microsoft wants it. While the online advertising mkt is experiencing solid growth in the U.S., cos that stake out major positions in Asia stand to reap greater rewards. Asia “is an underdeveloped but massive market” with “a lot more potential for growth,” says Hiroshi Kamide, an industry analyst with KBC Securities in Tokyo. Yahoo got an early start in Asia, gaining a strong position by virtue of investments in three of the region’s hottest Internet players: Yahoo Japan, online auction site Gmarket in South Korea, and the Chinese holding co Alibaba Group and its publicly traded unit, Alibaba.com, an online marketplace.
07:36 OC Owens Corning reports Q4 (Dec) results, beats on revs (19.44 )

Reports Q4 (Dec) adjusted earnings from continuing operations of $0.36 per share, may not be comparable to the First Call consensus of $0.18; revenues rose 4.3% year/year to $1.3 bln vs the $1.26 bln consensus. Co sees Y08 adjusted EBIT to be at least $240 mln.
07:36 NFLX sees FY08 $1.18-1.30 vs $1.17 First Call consensus; sees revs $1.34-1.38 bln vs $1.33 bln First Call consensus

07:35 TVL Lin TV reports Q4 (Dec) results, beats on revs; guides Q1 revs in-line (11.68 )

Reports Q4 (Dec) earnings of $0.46 per share, includes gain, may not be comparable to the First Call consensus of $0.16; revenues fell 14.9% year/year to $108.6 mln vs the $107.3 mln consensus. Co issues in-line guidance for Q1, sees Q1 revs of $93.5-95.5 mln vs. $95.51 mln consensus.
07:35 NFLX guides Q1 to $0.15-0.22 vs $0.20 First Call consensus; revs $324-328 mln vs $325.18 mln First Call consensus

07:34 LNG Cheniere Energy misses by $0.06, misses on revs (28.75 )

Reports Q4 (Dec) loss of $1.14 per share, $0.06 worse than the First Call consensus of ($1.08); revenues fell 20.3% year/year to $0.6 mln vs the $0.8 mln consensus.
07:33 LNG prelim ($1.14) vs ($1.0 First Call consensus; revs $0.638 mln vs $0.75 mln First Call consensus

07:33 TRMB Trimble Navigation: Oppenheimer believes the market under-appreciates TRMB’s broad exposure to strong macro trends in international E&C and Ag (28.56 )

Oppenheimer says following meetings with TRMB’s mgmt, they are reiterating their Outperform rating and $39 tgtt. Firm believes the market under-appreciates TRMB’s broad exposure to strong macro trends in international E&C and Ag, while overestimating its exposure to the ailing U.S. construction market. They recognize that fears of a US credit crunch could remain a source of near-term volatility for the stock. But this concern also creates an attractive entry point for investors with the patience to watch a rising tide of secular international trends drown out an isolated patch of potential trouble. Downside risk also appears limited, as 15x FY09 (~$25) was recently reconfirmed as TRMB’s trough multiple.
07:33 VPHM sees FY07 revs $210-235 mln vs $205.87 mln First Call consensus

07:33 WIRES On The Wires

athenahealth (ATHN) announces that Community Health Systems (CYH) will replace its current practice mgmt and billing systems with athenahealth’s centrally-hosted, on-demand practice mgmt and billing service, athenaCollector, for its largest corporate physician organization of more than 300 medical providers… J & J Snack Foods (JJSF) announces that it will be increasing prices across many of its product lines in April because of ‘continuing unprecedented’ commodity cost increases impacting its ingredients input costs. The price increases will be centered on products that are particularly impacted by increases in wheat and dairy costs. The increases will be as high as 12% depending on the ingredient makeup of individual product lines… GTSI (GTSI) announces that it has paid in full a subordinated secured term loan agreement with Crystal Capital.
07:32 OC prelim ($0.31) may not compare $0.18 First Call consensus; revs $1.3 bln vs $1.26 bln First Call consensus

07:32 VPHM prelim $0.25 vs $0.20 First Call consensus; revs $47.7 mln vs $50.38 mln First Call consensus

07:31 CHB Champion: Oppenheimer believes CHB represent attractive investment opportunity (9.45 )

Oppenheimer says they met with mgmt and continues to believe CHB represents an attractive investment opportunity. The co could increase capacity in the U.K. through an acquisition, in the near term. Canada should also continue to be a significant source of earnings, as the market is benefiting from the overall commodity boom. In the U.S., CHB continues to diverse away from HUD-Code into Modular and do a deal in this space (both commercial and residential) within the next 6-12 months.
07:30 CLHB prelim $0.81 vs $0.67 First Call consensus; revs $257.7 mln vs $244.51 mln First Call consensus

07:30 CKP prelim $0.52, ex items vs $0.52 First Call consensus; revs $262.7 mln vs $250.00 mln single estimate

07:30 ISR IsoRay appoints new Chairman and Interim CEO and announces management changes upon incumbent resignation (1.03 )

Co announces that director Dwight Babcock has been appointed Chairman of the company’s Board of Directors, and will also be Interim Chief Executive Officer, following the resignation for personal reasons of Roger Girard, who has been Chairman and CEO since July 2005. Lori Woods, currently Vice President/Marketing, will serve as Acting Chief Operating Officer, with direct responsibility for day-to-day operations including marketing, sales and manufacturing. Director David Swanberg will continue in his capacity as Executive Vice President responsible for manufacturing, engineering and R&D.
07:30 TSRA Tessera Tech: Appears TSRA may have pursued too many legal actions at the same time; still do not see a structural problem with the co - FBR (24.19 )

Friedman Billings notes that recent setbacks at the I.T.C. hearing are viewed as a direct consequence of Amkor’s (AMKR) success in its legal maneuvering before arbitration with TSRA (3/30) and TSRA’s changed legal strategy. The firm notes it was AMKR’s recent actions with the PTO that resulted in the PTO’s rejection of certain patent claims, despite the fact that the ITC complaint (by TSRA) was against a number of chip companies and subcontractors. The firm thinks TSRA’s new strategy has changed to one that is more aggressive (or, now, appears too aggressive). This sounded positive when TSRA first started to pursue this, but it now appears TSRA may have pursued too many legal actions at the same time. In short, they still do not see a structural problem with the co, or with the earnings estimates. At most, they estimate $0.10 downside risk to CY08’s pro forma EPS estimate of $1.70 due to higher-than-expected legal expenses. The risk/reward remains compelling following the sell-off, but they expect continued confusion/volatility until there is incremental color on AMKR arbitration.
07:28 MEDX Medarex upgraded to Market Perform from Underperform at BMO Capital (8.96 )

07:28 BMRN Biomarin Pharm: 4Q07 earnings; early Kuvan launch is promising - Jefferies (38.11 )

Jefferies says the Kuvan launch is progressing well and they continue to believe FY08 rev will exceed guidance driven by a higher-than-expected annual cost per patient and robust demand. BMRN shares are positioned for superior growth, with a 4-year EPS CAGR of ~50%, based off the first year of profitability in FY08.
07:25 LSE Capital Lease Funding beats by $0.01, reports revs in-line; guides FY08 FFO in-line (8.23 )

Reports Q4 (Dec) funds from operations of $0.28 per share, $0.01 better than the First Call consensus of $0.27; revenues rose 33.2% year/year to $46.8 mln vs the $46.8 mln consensus. Co issues in-line guidance for FY08, sees FFO of $1.07-1.10 vs. $1.09 consensus. “The Co’s guidance estimates assume no additions to the portfolio in 2008. Given current credit market conditions, we believe that any new investment activity in 2008 will be focused in the second half of the year and, therefore, will have minimal impact on 2008 results.”
07:24 CRDN Ceradyne downgraded to Hold at Morgan Joseph (35.75 )

Morgan Joseph downgrades CRDN to Hold from Buy, following in-line Q407 results and based on lower sales and EPS guidance attributed to government delays in shipments of X-SAPI body armor and later production of Bull vehicles.
07:24 TTGT Techtarget initiated with a Buy at Lazard- tgt $16 (12.07 )

Lazard initiates TTGT with a Buy and a $16 tgt saying they believe TechTarget is well positioned for growth as the leading online media company focused on the large B2B technology market. They expect multiple secular and company-specific growth trends to drive increasing revenues and margin expansion over the next 3-5 years as the company connects I/T professionals with relevant content, products and services.
07:23 AZN AstraZeneca stops one Recentin study, pursues another - DJ (40.03 )

DJ reports the co said it was stopping one study on the experimental cancer drug Recentin but was continuing another. The drug maker said that a phase-II study of the use of Recentin in non-small cell lung cancer will not progress into phase III after failing to meet its main goal. “Although evidence of clinical activity was seen, there appeared to be an imbalance in toxicity and therefore the study was considered not to have met the predefined criteria for automatic continuation,” AstraZeneca said in a statement. The co also said it was progressing with a phase-III stage clinical trial comparing Recentin plus chemotherapy against Roche Holding’s Avastin plus chemotherapy in colorectal cancer.
07:22 OFIX Orthofix downgraded to Neutral from Positive at Susquehanna (41.15 )

07:22 SUPG SuperGen upgraded to Neutral from Negative at Susquehanna (2.70 )

07:21 ECL Ecolab responds to Henkel’s announcement regarding sale of Ecolab shares (48.03 )

The co responds to Henkel KGaA’s announcement that it will sell some or all of the Ecolab shares held by Henkel. “We have a stockholder’s agreement with Henkel which ensures an orderly process in the event of any disposition by Henkel of our shares, including our right of first refusal,” said Douglas M. Baker, Jr., Ecolab’s Chairman, President and CEO. “We are prepared to work with Henkel on a transaction, which may include the repurchase of some shares by Ecolab.”
07:21 CDR Cedar Shopping Centers: Inland Investment Advisors amends 13D filing, increases stake to 12.3%, up from 11.3% on 2/19 (11.59 )

07:20 STO StatoilHydro sweetens weak quarter with big dividend - Reuters (29.91 )

According to Reuters, Norway’s StatoilHydro posted a smaller-than-expected fourth-quarter profit due to hefty merger costs and other one-offs but its shares rose on strong underlying oil and gas production and a fat dividend. The $95 billion group, long struggling to ramp up production as its core Norwegian oilfields mature, stuck to its output guidance and said it was stronger and more competitive after taking over Norsk Hydro’s oil and gas divisions. Earnings before interest and tax fell to 30.8 billion crowns ($5.79 billion) in October-December from a pro-forma 35.2 billion a year earlier — missing all 17 forecasts in a Reuters poll of analysts. EPS tumbled to 1.93 crowns from 4.65 crowns. StatoilHydro proposed a total of 8.5 crowns per share in dividend for 2007, higher than the expected 7.96 crowns. It gave shareholders about 62 percent of its earnings, well above its guidance of 45-50 percent.
07:19 GLNG Golar LNG downgraded to Market Perform at Friendman Billings- tgt $21 (21.59 )

Friedman Billings downgrades GLNG to Market Perform from Outperform and maintains their $21 tgt, following in-line Q407 recurring earnins and based on the delay of the MLP restructuring until at least Q308 and spot rates that could decline going into the summer, in their view, with a long tonnage environment in the face of upstream delays
07:19 Home price declines accelerate - FBR

Friedman Billings says the home price indexes released by the S&P/Case Schiller for the month of December and by OFHEO for 4Q07 show continued deterioration in the housing market, with further declines, especially in the California, Florida, and the Rust Belt. The S&P/ Case Shiller index for the month of December reported a 9.8% decline in the 10 City Composite Index year over year and a 9.1% decline for the 20 city composite index. The OFHEO HPI for 4Q07 shows a 0.3% decline in the purchase-only index from the prior year and a 5.16% annualized quarterly decline. OFHEO will start providing monthly indexes with a two month lag beginning March, given the turmoil in the housing markets. This will make the OFHEO data more comparable with the S&P Case Schiller data. The OFHEO HPI covers all states in the U.S., while the S&P Case Schiller index does not have data from 13 states.
07:19 ISPH Inspire Pharm: 4Q07 earnings unexciting; clinical programs to provide mid-year catalysts - Susquehanna (4.23 )

07:19 MSFT Microsoft: EU fines Microsoft record $1.35 bln - FT (28.38 )

FT reports that the European Commission fined MSFT a record €899m ($1.35 bln) on Wednesday for defying sanctions imposed on the software giant for antitrust violations, far exceeding the original penalty. The Commission, the executive arm of the European Union, has now fined MSFT €1.68bn for its original violation and for failing to comply with sanctions, more than any other co. It said no other co had ever ignored sanctions. “MSFT was the first co in 50 years of EU competition policy that the Commission has had to fine for failure to comply with an antitrust decision,” Competition Commissioner Neelie Kroes said in a statement. The co said in a statement that the fines concerned “past issues” and it was now looking to the future. The Commission said in a landmark 2004 ruling -upheld by an EU court last year- that MSFT had withheld needed interoperability information to rival makers of “work group server” software. The software, which operates printers and sign-ons for small office groups, must interoperate with desktop Windows machines. The Commission found MSFT denied vital interoperability codes to rivals, whose market share then shrivelled, to be replaced by MSFT’s own product. MSFT was ordered to provide the information. It agreed to do so but imposed high royalties on grounds of innovation. The Commission found instead that the information lacked much innovation and was more like a lock to which MSFT was withholding the combination. It decided the royalties were unreasonable.
07:18 DNA Genentech: Rodman & Renshaw believes the potential downside for losing the Cabilly patent is unlikely to have an impact on the bottom line until late 2009 (77.50 )

Rodman & Renshaw says DNA announced that the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office issued a final ruling rejecting the claims of the Cabilly Patent. During the appeals process, estimated to take up to 1 to 2 years, the ‘415 patent remains valid and enforceable. The most significant Cabilly royalty streams potentially affected by the decision are from sales of Humira, Remicade, Synagis and Erbitux. Firm believes the potential downside for losing the Cabilly patent is unlikely to have an impact on the bottom line until late 2009, and will not have any substantial impact on EPS until 2010, because the entire appeals process will take somewhere between one and two years.
07:18 KWR Quaker Chemical reports Q4 EPS of $0.46 vs $0.31 single estimate; revs $142.39 mln vs $115.52 in yr ago period (21.71 )

07:17 Dollar falls to record against Euro on Fed rate-cut speculation - Bloomberg.com

Bloomberg.com reports the dollar weakened below $1.50 per euro for the first time on speculation Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke will indicate the U.S. central bank is ready to cut interest rates from a three-year low. The dollar also dropped against 15 of the 16 most-active currencies after German business confidence unexpectedly strengthened for a second month in February, prompting traders to reduce bets on a cut in interest rates by the European Central Bank. The currency fell to an all-time low against the Swiss franc and to a 23-year low versus the New Zealand dollar. “We’re in a new regime for the dollar. The proximate cause has been European data, which has indicated that Europe hasn’t suffered on the growth side as the U.S. has.”
07:17 MSFT Microsoft: Friedman Billings believes MSFT will be successful in its bid to acquire YHOO (28.38 )

Friedman Billings says that since MSFT announced its bid for YHOO, a popular opinion has been that MSFT will need to raise its bid to gain the support of YHOO shareholders. However, given that many of YHOO’s top shareholders are also significant MSFT shareholders, it is not that simple. In a way, they have conflicting interests. An examination of YHOO’s top shareholders reveals that a significant majority have a higher exposure to MSFT and could likely be hurt by a higher offer. Firm still believes it could happen, but not as much to win over YHOO shareholders. Rather, MSFT’s motive to raise its bid would mostly be to gain the support of YHOO mgmt. Firm believes MSFT will be successful in its bid to acquire YHOO, and they view that favorably.
07:17 SQM Sociedad Quimica y Minera reports Y07 EPS of $1.69 vs $1.13 in yr ago period; reports revs up 13.9% yr/yr to $1.19 bln (195.00 )

07:17 AIG American Intl: Friedman Billings believes that AIG’s core businesses will not be affected much by continued credit market problems (51.42 )

Friedman Billings says based on their analysis AIG could easily withstand a $5-$20 bln negative mark on its credit default swap portfolio. Since these losses do not represent economic losses, firm believes they are largely irrelevant in valuing AIG. The real question is whether AIG’s balance sheet can absorb this initial punch. Without any doubt, they believe the answer is “yes.” Firm calculates that AIG has about $20 bln of excess capital, in line with its estimates. We also estimate that AIG would need to record losses in excess of $20 bln to post a loss in 2007. Even if A.M. Best were to downgrade AIG one notch, this would still leave AIG with a rating of “A+,” still one of the strongest in the insurance business. Firm believes that AIG’s core businesses will not be affected much by continued credit market problems.
07:16 SEAB Seabright Insurance Holdings: EPS beat, modest top-line growth through geographic expansion - FBR (14.76 )

Friedman Billings says SEAB reported its 4Q07 results, with operating EPS of $0.48 beating the First Call consensus by $0.01. On the surface, SEAB’s 4Q07 results might not seem spectacular. Gross written premiums grew by only 8% in 4Q07, slower than the 23% premium growth the co achieved for 2007 as a whole. A deeper look, however, gives a much more positive impression of the quarter’s results. To start, co recorded $7.2 mln of reserve redundancies on a pretax basis for Q4. These reserve releases demonstrate a positive underwriting trend and indicate that whatever price erosion SEAB experienced is fully offset by a decline in the frequency/severity of claims.
07:15 BRP Brasil Telecom Part upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS (69.25 )

07:15 VIT VanceInfo Tech reports Q4 non-GAAP EPS of $0.10, GAAP EPS of $0.07 vs $0.07 two analyst estimate; reports revs up 96.1% yr/yr to $19.3 mln vs $17.3 mln two analyst estimate (6.61 )

Co sees Y08 non-GAAP EPS of $0.37-0.41, GAAP EPS of $0.34-0.38 vs $0.35 consensus; co sees revs of $92-96 mln vs $92.6 mln consensus.
07:15 CLR Continental Resources profiled in New America section of IBD (25.83 )

IBD reports the co has about 311,000 acres to explore in the Bakken Shale… Strictly speaking, those reserves aren’t all new finds. When oil prices fell in the late 1990s, production there slowed and exploration stopped. In the last three years, though, new drilling methods and high oil prices have made those reserves more accessible and very profitable. Some geologists now think there may be more oil beneath the North Dakota ranch land than under all of Alaska. But only a tiny percentage of it might ever be accessible. “In many cases, we already know that there’s vast amounts of what we call probable reserves, but it’s a matter of putting a well in the ground and proving that it’s there and that they can get to it,” says Raymond James analyst John Freeman… Continental specializes in getting oil and natural gas out of difficult spots. In the Bakken Shale, for instance, it uses horizontal drilling, in which it pushes thousands of feet down, then turns 90 degrees and digs sideways into the shale. It also uses fracture stimulation — pumping in sand or fluids under pressure to break open channels in the rock, allowing better flows… Continental says it’s getting high flow from its test wells; it expects high margins… Freeman said Continental is “the oiliest company we cover. Oil fundamentals are fantastic right now.” Margins are far less attractive in natural gas.
07:15 CCOI Cogent Communications beats by $0.05, beats on revs; guides Q1 (Mar) EPS in-line, revs in-line; guides FY08 (Dec) EPS in-line, raises revs in-line (19.68 )

Reports Q4 (Dec) loss of $0.15 per share, $0.05 better than the First Call consensus of ($0.20). Co issues in-line guidance for Q1 (Mar), sees EPS of -0.17-0.22 vs. ($0.15) consensus; sees Q1 (Mar) revs ‘to be over’ $52.00 mln vs. $52.01 mln consensus. Co raises guidance in-line for FY08 (Dec), sees EPS of -0.10-0.20 vs. ($0.22) consensus, up from its previously released guidance of between $(0.15) and $(0.30); sees FY08 (Dec) revs of 225-235 vs. $226.95 mln consensus. Cogent’s Q1 guidance includes an expected $5.5 mln to $6.0 mln of estimated non-cash equity-based compensation expense and assumes approximately 46.0 mln weighted average common shares outstanding. Cogent’s 2008 net loss per basic and diluted common share guidance includes $18.0 mln to $19.0 mln of non-cash equity-based compensation expense from its previously released guidance of between $14.5 mln to $15.5 mln of non-cash equity-based compensation expense and assumes 46.0 mln weighted average common shares outstanding from its previously released guidance of 47.0 mln weighted average common shares outstanding.
07:14 ASTE Astec Industries removed from Alpha List at Piper Jaffray (37.26 )

07:14 NT Nortel reports Q4 (Dec) results; guides for FY08 (11.45 )

Reports Q4 (Dec) loss of $1.70 per share, includes multiple charges, doesn’t compare to the First Call consensus of $0.47; revenues rose 18.3% year/year to $3.2 bln vs the $3.28 bln consensus. Co expects 2008 revenues to grow in the low single digits and operating margin to increase by about 300 basis points compared to 2007
07:14 YGE Yingli Green Energy: Downgrade details (19.07 )

As mentioned at 6:39 BofA downgraded YGE to Neutral from Buy and lowers their tgt to $18 from $40, as they estimate that YGE is still exposed on roughly 20-25% of its FY08 silicon needs and a substantially larger portion of its FY09 requirements and even with its very low processing costs, the co’s high unhedged silicon position put its ability to improve GM in FY08 or FY09 into question, particularly given lower anticipated module prices in 2H08 and FY09.
07:11 PRICE Filings, Offerings, Pricings and IPOs

Filings: Kinder Morgan Prtnrs (KMP) files for a 4.3 mln common unit secondary offering… National Retail Properties (NNN) files for a $200 mln convertible notes offering pursuant to an existing shelf registration… Offerings: Enbridge Energy Partners (EEP) announces it has commeced a 4 mln common units offering.
07:11 ADSK Autodesk downgraded to Accumulate at ThinkEquity- tgt cut to $42 (39.10 )

ThinkEquity downgrades ADSK to Accumulate from Buy and cuts their tgt to $42 from $55 following earnings. The fimr says the strong European and emerging region outperformances were encouraging but likely not enough to placate skeptics, especially as investors are likely looking for opportunities to punish any shred of non-performance. Despite the blowout revenue performance, stellar competitive positioning, and diversification across industry verticals and geographies, the firm says Autodesk has more exposure to a weakening economy than they had thought, which increases the risk profile in the near term.
07:11 AER AerCap misses by $0.04, misses on revs (19.51 )

Reports Q4 (Dec) earnings of $0.53 per share, $0.04 worse than the First Call consensus of $0.57; revenues rose 34.5% year/year to $284.6 mln vs the $290.7 mln consensus.
07:09 CGPI CollaGenex Pharm downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at BMO Capital (16.33 )

07:09 ENOC EnerNOC misses by $0.18, beats on revs (25.50 )

Reports Q4 (Dec) loss of $0.48 per share, $0.18 worse than the First Call consensus of ($0.30); revenues rose 233.9% year/year to $19.7 mln vs the $19 mln consensus.
07:08 TSL Trina Solar: Downgrade details (34.32 )

As mentioned at 6:39 BofA downgrades TSL to Sell from Buy and cut their tgt to $28 from $44 saying solar industry margins will continue to contract due to intense competition for silicon, decelerating demand in Spain and Germany, and higher supply of modules.
07:08 NIHD NII Holdings beats by $0.12, beats on revs; guides FY08 revs in-line (42.96 )

Reports Q4 (Dec) earnings of $0.71 per share, $0.12 better than the First Call consensus of $0.59; revenues rose 40.1% year/year to $940.1 mln vs the $913.6 mln consensus. Co issues in-line guidance for FY08, sees FY08 revs of $4.25 bln vs. $4.26 bln consensus.
07:08 IHP IHOP Corp reports Q4 (Dec) results, beats on revs (40.00 )

Reports Q4 (Dec) earnings of $0.01 per share, excluding non-recurring items, may not be comparable to the First Call consensus of $0.53; revenues rose 143.0% year/year to $213.6 mln may not compare to the $148 mln consensus. Q4 results include Applebee’s financial performance for one month of Y07. Co sees Y08 consolidated cash from operations of approx $100 mln, with $92 mln in consolidated free cash flow. Co sees Y08 same-store sales for IHOP of +2-4%; co sees Y08 same-store sales for Applebee’s of +1-2%.
07:07 BYD Boyd Gaming beats by $0.01, misses on revs (24.50 )

Reports Q4 (Dec) earnings of $0.39 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.01 better than the First Call consensus of $0.38; revenues fell 8.1% year/year to $478.6 mln vs the $497.8 mln consensus.
07:06 SOLF Solarfun Power: Downgrade details (14.03 )

As mentioned at 6:39 BofA downgraded SOLF to Sell from Neutral and lowers their tgt to $12 from $37, due to lower anticipated shipments from Zhongneng and the tight silicon supply market and believe the co may face difficulty meeting its 185 MW of contracts for FY08 delivery (announced on Q308 call).
07:06 CCOI sees FY08 ($0.10-0.20) vs ($0.22) First Call consensus; sees revs $225-235 mln vs $226.95 mln First Call consensus

07:06 JASO JA Solar: Downgrade details (15.99 )

As mentioned at 6:39 BofA downgraded JASO to Neutral from Buy and cuts their tgt to $17 from $27 consistent with their more cautious industry view. The frim believes that solar industry gross margins will continue to contract due to 1) intense competition for silicon, 2) decelerating demand in Spain and Germany, and 3) higher supply of modules.
07:05 CBI CB&I misses by $0.05, beats on revs; guides FY08 EPS above consensus, revs in-line (46.47 )

Reports Q4 (Dec) earnings of $0.46 per share, $0.05 worse than the First Call consensus of $0.51; revenues rose 51.5% year/year to $1.32 bln vs the $1.19 bln consensus. Co issues guidance for FY08, sees EPS of $2.40-2.65 vs. $2.39 consensus; sees FY08 revs of $5.9-6.2 bln vs. $5.97 bln consensus.
07:05 CCOI sees Q1 ($0.17-0.22) vs ($0.15) First Call consensus; sees revs $52 mln vs $52.01 mln First Call consensus

07:03 CCOI prelim ($0.15) vs ($0.20) First Call consensus; revs $50 mln vs $49.24 mln First Call consensus

07:02 NIHD sees FY08 revs $4.25 bln vs $4.26 bln First Call consensus

07:02 IAR Idearc says Chairman and CEO John Mueller resigns for unforeseen health reasons (6.92 )

Co announces that John Mueller has resigned as the co’s Chairman and Chief Executive Officer for unforeseen health reasons, effective immediately. The Idearc Board of Directors has appointed Frank Gatto, currently Executive Vice President of Idearc, as interim CEO while a search is conducted for a permanent replacement.
07:02 NIHD prelim $0.71 vs $0.59 First Call consensus; revs $940.1 mln vs $913.61 mln First Call consensus

07:02 IHP prelim $0.01 may not compare to $0.53 First Call consensus; revs $213.6 mln may not compare to $147.96 mln First Call consensus

07:01 BYD prelim $0.39, ex items vs $0.38 First Call consensus; revs $478.64 mln vs $497.84 mln First Call consensus

07:01 OCLS Oculus Innovative Sciences announces ‘positive’ top-line Phase II data with Microcyn technology in mildly infected diabetic foot ulcers (5.73 )

Co announces ‘positive’ top-line results from its U.S. Phase II clinical trial evaluating Microcyn Technology as a topical antimicrobial treatment for mildly infected diabetic foot ulcers. Microcyn demonstrated a positive clinical response, defined as the clinical cure or improvement of infection, as a monotherapy and in combination with levofloxacin, a systemic antibiotic. The company plans to request an end-of-Phase II meeting with the FDA to discuss Phase II results and define the scope and parameters for advancing the clinical program.
07:00 SGMO Sangamo BioSci announces expansion of research and license agreement with Genentech for ZFP technology (11.50 )

Co announces that it has entered into a second Research and License Agreement with Genentech (DNA) expanding on the original agreement to include additional targets for potential improvement of production cell lines using Sangamo’s proprietary zinc finger DNA-binding protein nuclease technology.
07:00 ECONX MBA Mortgage Applications -19.2% vs -22.6% prior

07:00 ENOC prelim ($0.4 vs ($0.30) First Call consensus; revs $19.7 mln vs $19.02 mln First Call consensus

07:00 CBI prelim $0.46 vs $0.51 First Call consensus; revs $1.32 bln vs $1.19 bln First Call consensus

07:00 LUX Luxottica: Hearing upgraded to buy from neutral at tier 1 firm (27.55 )

06:58 COST Costco: Hearing downgraded to neutral from buy at tier 1 firm (66.46 )

06:58 NG NovaGold Resources downgraded to Underperform from Sector Perform at RBC (10.86 )

06:57 XLNX Xilinx upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS (22.67 )

06:56 OSG Overseas Shipholding upgraded to Outperform from Peer Perform at Bear Stearns (70.54 )

06:56 ESV Ensco downgraded to Add at Calyon- tgt $69 (60.72 )

Calyon downgrades ESV to Add from Buy and raises their tgt to $69 from $65, based on valuation following Q407 revenue and EPS that exceeded firm and consensus estimates.
06:53 DYN Dynegy reports Q4 (Dec) results, misses on revs (8.26 )

Reports Q4 (Dec) loss of $0.08 per share, includes gains, charges, may not be comparable to the First Call consensus of $0.02; revenues rose 111.1% year/year to $724 mln vs the $898.5 mln consensus. Co sees Y08 EBITDA of approx $1.0-1.1 bln, compared to previous guidance of approx $1.1-1.2 bln.
06:49 RELV Reliv’ International reports Q4 EPS of $0.04 vs $0.06 single estimate; revs $24.64 mln vs $24.30 mln single estimate (7.57 )

06:49 TRCA Tercica reports EPS of ($0.36) vs ($0.42) consensus; reports revs up 331% yr/yr at $4.1 mln vs $5.0 mln consensus (6.81 )

06:48 KSWS K-Swiss downgraded to Negative from Neutral at Susquehanna (15.15 )

06:48 Lehman initiates the Homebuilders with a Positive

Lehman initiates coverage on the Homebuilders with a Positive industry rating. The firm expects that the stocks could cont